Mario Nawfal

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Signs the Houthis hit Saudi Arabia's Shaybah field again, a 500 megawatt fire lit up Khurais on NASA satellites, and Riyadh has said nothing... the world may already be short 5 to 8 million barrels a day Khurais is a 1.1 million barrel a day field that only produces when treated seawater keeps the pressure up, and he believes the plant that pumps that water was hit. Three of the East West pipeline's pumping stations were hit, by his count, on a route that climbs 3,000 feet. Chris Martenson, energy analyst at Peak Prosperity, says the silence is the data: "I would feel better if we at least had believable lies. But we're getting nothing." A 5 to 8 million barrel shortfall is the largest oil supply shock in history, and oil use tracks GDP almost one for one, so if Iran works through its declared target list, starting with Abqaiq, exporters everywhere stop selling, and at that point oil has no ceiling. @chrismartenson @WeTheBrandon

🇫🇷 France is getting clean again. Paris workers finished scrubbing the graffiti off the Republic statue yesterday, just days after the weekend riots. And they're cleaning up the streets too, getting rid of burned-out cars and broken glass. But people are still stuck with the same high living costs, and France still has a mountain of debt. Cleaning up the mess was the easy part. Writer: Daniyal t.co/VrtQeQOPxZ

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 The US and Israel have drawn up a post-midterm strike plan for Iran with Pickaxe Mountain at the top of the list... and Trump already canceled it once this month Both militaries were on highest alert in early October when he postponed at the last minute, which one commander calls "day-to-day whiplash." The plan is short and intensive, aimed at nuclear sites and missile stocks while steering clear of refineries so gas doesn't climb higher, with longer November nights as the window. Tehran says 72 hours is a "fantasy" and its answer is Aramco's refineries and the internet cables. The first phase of this war strained Patriot stocks to 2030 and put Brent at $110, and nobody can explain why round two ends differently. Source: New York Times / Writer: Daniel

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Explosions rock Lipetsk as Ukrainian drones reportedly breach Russian air defenses Air raid alerts rang out across the region as a fresh wave of strikes rained down. Emergency services are assessing casualties, but the real damage is to Russia's domestic air defense posture. As drone raids escalate, repeated strikes on Lipetsk prove deep Russian hubs remain wide open to persistent attacks. Source: WFW on TG / Writer: Bri

🚨🇬🇧 Turning Point UK's CEO was filmed offering an undercover reporter a menu of beatings, stabbings and killings through a Glasgow contact who says he arms the UVF Al Jazeera’s undercover operation started in 2021 when a reporter joined the British offshoot of the American student group. Its CEO Jack Ross, a Conservative candidate in 2023, introduced the reporter to Allan Nesbitt, a convicted criminal and self-described UVF member, agreed on camera to pay him to stage a fake pro-Zimbabwe rally, and priced out what Nesbitt’s friends could do to a person, from cutting faces to MURDER. The UVF is the Ulster Volunteer Force, a Protestant loyalist paramilitary from Northern Ireland’s Troubles that killed over 500 people between 1966 and 1999, including 33 in one day in the Dublin and Monaghan bombings, and is still banned as a terror group. Since the peace deal it has run mostly as a drug gang that kept the name and the guns. Nesbitt reportedly met the reporter in a London hotel, offered to have a fictional business rival “finished,” claimed he’d personally stabbed a man to death, showed a shotgun and pistol on a video call and said the fee would buy weapons smuggled from Scotland into Northern Ireland. Ross says it was a joke. The joke came with a price list, a weapons demo and a smuggling route, and the police now have a name and a video... and wasn't particularly funny. Somebody in Turning Point UK’s donor base should be asking when the fundraising dinners turned into this. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Daniel

🚨🇷🇸 Belgrade streets are FILLING UP tonight as students make their final push before Sunday’s vote in Serbia The Student List, born from the Novi Sad canopy protests, has emerged as a major rival to Vučić’s party, with one poll even putting it slightly ahead. After 2 years of protests, the movement is now betting on the ballot box. Writer: Lucas t.co/r1TIJ7Pipf

🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Daily news recap: Betting markets give Eisenkot 53% to Netanyahu’s 27%... and that could make a strike before the vote more likely. Netanyahu got a one day bump when Trump endorsed him, then slid right back, and the fear is that a losing prime minister hits Iran, draws a response and uses the emergency to delay the October 27 election. Losing could cost him far more than his job: “If he loses this election he could very well go to jail.” Would Netanyahu really blindside the president who just endorsed him? @WeTheBrandon

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 BREAKING: unconfirmed reports of a second IRGC missile launch unit hit by an airstrike in the Sirik hills on Iran's Hormuz coast Source: @TabzLIVE / Writer: Daniel

🚨🇵🇸🇮🇱 Seinfeld star Jason Alexander says a table of Palestinian artists formed a human shield around him when gunshots rang out in Ramallah Before the trip, a Palestinian friend told the Jewish actor that Muslim hosts would take a bullet for an invited guest, and Jason didn’t fully believe him until Israeli troops fired into the air during a nearby raid: “He wasn’t kidding. They’re not going to let me get hurt.” Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Daniel

🇮🇱 🇮🇷 🇺🇸 Daily news recap: Dozens of Israeli jets flew all the way to Iran’s border and turned back... and some US officials suspect it was bait. Israel called it a training run ahead of its October 27 election, video shows Iran trucking ballistic missiles into position in the west, and Iran’s foreign minister says diplomacy only returns once Washington accepts it has no military option. The bet here is that Israel moves before Israelis vote: “The Israelis are going to hit first.” If Israel strikes and Iran answers, Washington gets pulled in whether the midterms are over or not. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇮🇱 Israeli jets just launched a "massive power projection operation" toward Iran as US embassies order families out of Qatar, Jordan and Bahrain... the only other times this year came after the bombs were already falling Explosions reportedly hit Iran's Hormuz coast tonight while NBC reported diplomats evacuating, and the jets taking off from Israel are the same ones that rehearsed a refueled run to the border on Monday. Anthony Aguilar, retired Army lieutenant colonel, says the rehearsal is over: "This could be the thing that they were rehearsing." Anthony believes the Roosevelt's Japan stop was to load bombs, and by his count only six bunker busters remain, so Trump's MOAB is the weapon in play. A slow C130 only works close to the coast, so the first targets look like Iran's power and water, which is exactly the kind of strike Iran says makes Gulf infrastructure fair game.

🇾🇪 🇸🇦 🇮🇶 Daily news recap: Pro Houthi channels are openly talking about invading Saudi Arabia... and Iran friendly militias in Iraq could hit the kingdom from the north. The Houthis are hitting the border, building up and riding a fresh battlefield win, while attacks out of Iraq keep piling up, which could add up to a two front push on Saudi Arabia’s southern provinces: “It’s a possibility. It’s something we have to entertain now because we’re in a really weird moment.” Saudi defenses were built to handle one front at a time, and the kingdom may soon have to deal with two. @WeTheBrandon

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Russia may have ZERO REASON to accept a ceasefire in Ukraine, and Putin could be preparing to demand even MORE territory. Lt. Col. Daniel Davis (Ret.) warns that while Zelensky now appears willing to freeze the war along the current front lines, Moscow may have already moved beyond that possibility. He argues that Russia has gained additional territory in Sumy, Kharkiv, and Dnipropetrovsk, while Ukraine faces mounting shortages of troops and air defenses. And he believes Putin knows EXACTLY how much leverage he has. Give Moscow everything it demands, or watch Russian forces keep advancing until Ukraine faces TERMS OF SURRENDER. @DanielLDavis1

🇭🇹🇸🇻 Haiti's gangs may have just made the WORST and LAST mistake of their lives Four Salvadoran aviation technicians disappeared after armed gangs ambushed their vehicle near Port-au-Prince. Bukele emphasized that they were there to perform medical evacuations and SAVE LIVES. Now, a military rescue operation is ongoing and Bukele delivered a BRUTAL ultimatum to the gang leaders, directly in Haitian Creole. “We have already finished with the gangs in El Salvador, and we can finish with yours too.” Writer: Sol t.co/uHD1T4LFqo

Israeli fighter jets are flying close to Iran again now, after dozens did on Monday, keeping Iran on their toes before the actual attack begins Also today, U.S. embassies told staff to leave with their families (as they did in March when the war started), and troops are leaving bases in Qatar, Jordan and Kuwait I cannot believe I'm saying this, but unfortuantely, war seems imminent

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇷🇺 The U.S. just HIT Iran with fresh sanctions and handed Russia’s Lukoil extra time. The Treasury’s new Iran list hits 5 people, 4 companies and 9 ships, all in one go. And on the very same day, Lukoil reportedly got until November 21 to sell off its foreign assets. Tough on Iran, easy on Russia, that’s been the vibe in Washington lately. Source: Mehr News Agency / Writer: Daniyal

🚨🇮🇷🇮🇱🇺🇸 BREAKING: Reports of multiple IRGC cruise missile launches from Sirik toward the Strait of Hormuz, with fighter jets reportedly active at the northern Iraq-Iran border at the same time Both are unconfirmed. The launch reports come from the same stretch of coast where explosions hit an IRGC missile unit earlier today, and the jets over the Iraq-Iran frontier are being read as Israeli, repeating the strike route dozens of Israeli aircraft flew Monday before turning back at the border. Source: Geopolitics Watch on TG / Writer: Daniel

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 BREAKING: AIPAC drops candidate endorsements and direct donations after its stamp of approval turned into a political liability AIPAC says it will stop endorsing candidates and stop routing money to them directly, shifting to individual donors instead: "We must build a more strategic, consequential, and nimble political operation." The timing says otherwise. This summer, 104 House members voted to end military aid to Israel, endorsed lawmakers started returning AIPAC money, and its name became an attack ad in primaries. Voters are tired of Gaza, tired of an Iran war, and tired of commentators branding critics antisemites... and when the most powerful lobby in Washington goes undercover two weeks before the midterms, that fatigue has officially won. Source: Jewish Insider, NBC / Writer: Lucas, Daniel

🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇸 Dozens of Israeli jets and refueling tankers flew 800 miles toward Iran on Monday, and some US officials suspect it was bait to make Tehran fire first An Israeli strike reportedly planned for October 10 was called off over Trump's objection to restarting before the midterms, and if Iran can be goaded into striking first, Netanyahu never has to convince Washington of anything. Trita Parsi of the Quincy Institute says munitions have moved into Israel in the last couple of weeks, and he warns that if Trump pulls back at the last minute to cut a deal, especially after a midterm loss, the danger flips: "The Israelis will preempt, not the Iranians, not the Americans, but a deal between the US and Iran and strike and try to blow it up." A messy coalition count after October 27 keeps Netanyahu prime minister and his hand on the trigger well past the vote. @tparsi

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is preparing to EVACUATE embassy personnel and their families across the Gulf as fears of renewed fighting in the Middle East grow. THREE American officials confirmed preparations for mandatory departures, with the threat of renewed HOUTHI ATTACKS from Yemen driving the decision. Washington is considering evacuating EVERYONE from its diplomatic mission in SAUDI ARABIA, including their families. The U.S. Embassy in Riyadh has already issued a security warning about possible new Houthi strikes, following deadly attacks that included Riyadh's airport. Source: Reuters / Writer: Sol

🇬🇷 Thousands of young COMMUNISTS flooded the streets of Athens, waving red flags as far-left movements continue mobilizing across Europe. Europe's growing unrest could serve the interests of powerful political actors who benefit from weakened national governments and increasingly divided populations. Now, watching thousands of activists take to the streets, it's worth asking WHO is organizing these movements, who's funding them, and what political objectives they're pursuing. I find the scale of these mobilizations suspicious, especially with so many European governments already facing mounting public anger. Are we watching a spontaneous wave of ideological activism, or is someone trying to turn Europe's political frustration into something much bigger? Writer: Sol t.co/eJJHBnoMJA

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. is running dangerously low on missile interceptors, yet Trump is STILL considering another war with Iran. WHY? Lt. Col. Daniel Davis (Ret.) delivers a BRUTAL assessment: he believes Trump's cognitive abilities have deteriorated to the point where his judgment is seriously compromised. He argues that Trump's decision-making has become increasingly IRRATIONAL, leaving him vulnerable to advisers who keep promising that another attack on Iran will finally work. He claims military and intelligence officials warned the administration MONTHS before the war that the strategy was doomed, yet those warnings were ignored. And he fears Trump's perceived success in Venezuela has fueled a dangerous belief that he can pull off ANY military operation, regardless of the risks. Trump may be so convinced of his own invincibility that he's ready to take America STRAIGHT OFF THE CLIFF. @DanielLDavis1

🇺🇸🇸🇦 EA is shutting down BioWare, the studio behind Mass Effect and Dragon Age. That means around 400 jobs gone, about 50 of them at BioWare, and the next Mass Effect game is dead before it really got going. It’s all part of EA tightening its belt after going private 2 months ago in a $55 billion buyout led by Saudi Arabia’s investment fund, a deal that left it sitting on about $18 billion in debt. So the money is now going to the safer bets, sports games, Apex Legends, Battlefield, Star Wars and Iron Man. The studio that made gamers cry over RPGs just got its own sad ending. Source: Bloomberg / Writer: Daniyal

🔥🇺🇲 Check out the BADASS TRAINING for the USMC  They're underwater WARRIORS 💪 Writer: Marie t.co/WT9rvjxyLr

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇺🇦 Trump thinks a Ukraine deal could be closer than it’s been in a long time. “When you’re close to a deal and you have very delicate negotiations, you don’t put sanctions on.” That’s his reason for waiving a new package of Russia sanctions last week. The Kremlin just called Ukraine’s latest peace ideas not very useful, so “maybe close” might be generous. Writer: Daniyal t.co/G9bLZt9KfR

🚨🇺🇸🇸🇦🇾🇪 The State Department orders American embassy families out of Saudi Arabia over Houthi attacks State blamed Houthi strikes on civilian airports and critical infrastructure "resulting in civilian casualties," and pointedly corrected AFP and Reuters reports that the order covered the whole Gulf. It's Saudi Arabia only, which tells you where Washington thinks the next missile lands. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Daniel

🇺🇸 Just another day of Trump making friends with the press: “You don't know what you're talking about. You're dumb. You're a low IQ person, and you work for CNN.” Another lovely day of White House media relations. Writer: Sol t.co/uiNBfHkr1N

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump was asked if he regrets going to war with Iran. “I think it’s one of the greatest things we’ve done.” 8 months in, gas still over $4 a gallon, and not a single regret. Writer: Daniyal t.co/XyKgrVZy0i

🚨🇸🇦 A drone attack targeting a SAUDI ARAMCO oil field has left TWO people DEAD and two others injured in Saudi Arabia. Saudi air defenses intercepted the drone as it approached the Shaybah oil field, but falling debris set a contractor's vehicle ON FIRE, killing a Filipino and a Nepali national and injuring Pakistani and Indian workers. Saudi Energy Ministry says oil operations were unaffected. The attack comes as Yemen's HOUTHIS threaten to strike Saudi energy infrastructure, with tensions between the two sides escalating. Source: BBC, AA / Writer: Sol

🇺🇸🇮🇱🇮🇷 A new U.S. strike on Iran could trigger a MUCH BIGGER WAR, with Tehran determined to make sure Washington can't simply attack and walk away. Lt. Col. Daniel Davis (Ret.), Fmr. U.S. Army officer, warns that the military signals he's hearing point toward a major U.S.-Israeli operation, potentially larger than previous rounds of fighting. He argues that Iran has little reason to accept another symbolic strike, knowing the U.S. could simply rebuild its military capabilities and attack again years later. Instead, Tehran may seek retaliation severe enough to discourage future American presidents from repeating the cycle. And Davis sees another danger: even if Trump wants to walk away, he fears Israel could take action that drags Washington back into the conflict. So the U.S. may be approaching a war it will find VERY DIFFICULT to escape. @DanielLDavis1