Mario Nawfal

🇺🇸🇷🇺 The U.S. is now asking Russia for help getting its own diesel deal working. Russia's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev says the U.S. Treasury has asked Russia's sovereign wealth fund to sort out payments for the deal Trump made with Putin. The idea is to bring Russian diesel back to U.S. and global markets to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterms. But here's the awkward part. Trump would have to lift some of his own sanctions on Russian oil to make it work. And apparently, it's quite a mess. Dmitriev admits there are so many sanctions piled on top of each other that even figuring out which ones to remove is difficult. To make things worse, a new U.S. sanctions law could also block future investment deals between the 2 countries. So Washington wants Russian diesel, but first it has to figure out how to get around the sanctions Trump himself imposed. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil is above $100, but the real danger may be what happens to diesel I had an interesting conversation with financial analyst David Lin about what oil markets are telling us as tensions with Iran rise again. Brent is trading around $107 a barrel, and I'm trying to understand whether investors are preparing for another short confrontation or something much worse. David raised a problem that I think deserves more attention. It's not simply how much crude oil the world can produce. It's how much of that oil can actually be refined into diesel, gasoline and other products. He points out that major refining countries are already operating close to capacity. That leaves very little room to compensate if Houthi attacks continue damaging Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure. And diesel matters enormously. It powers the trucks moving goods, the machinery producing them and much of the infrastructure keeping global supply chains functioning. David says those higher transportation costs haven't yet appeared significantly in American grocery inflation data, although trucking companies are already reporting that they're passing them along. We also looked at something curious in the markets. Technology stocks have been weakening while investors move toward bonds, utilities, healthcare and other defensive assets. David isn't calling an AI crash. But he sees a noticeable shift away from risk. What I found most interesting was our disagreement about oil prices. I worry that $107 oil reflects expectations of another major escalation with Iran. David thinks the price also reflects today's unusually expensive shipping conditions, even as tanker traffic through Hormuz has reportedly recovered substantially. Both explanations matter. The next economic shock might not come from oil disappearing from the market, but from the cost of moving and refining what's still available. @davidlin_TV

🇩🇪🇷🇺 AfD's Tino Chrupalla on fears Russia could attack NATO: “Putin has explicitly said that he has no intention of attacking NATO.” Very reassuring. Europe can apparently cancel intelligence services, satellite surveillance and Article 5 planning. Vladimir has given his word. 👏 Writer: Oliver t.co/aEdsK1iiVI

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump is done arguing about who started the Ukraine war. After calling for Zelensky to be replaced, Trump was confronted with: “Did you forget Putin started the war?” Trump: “I don't CARE anything except for one: I want that war ended! That's all I care about!” That's a remarkable answer from an American president who is now openly questioning Ukraine's leadership while negotiating with Moscow. The reporter wanted him to acknowledge who started the war. Trump made clear that his priority is ending it, regardless of where the question began. Writer: Oliver t.co/Liy6sCkBje

🇺🇸🇸🇦🇮🇱 Trump thinks Saudi Arabia should accept Israel's help in fighting the Houthis. “Yeah I do, sure. Israel has been very helpful to Saudi Arabia.” Saudi Arabia needs all the help it can get against the Houthis, just maybe not from a country it doesn’t officially recognize. Writer: Daniyal t.co/4hu9uwkwYX

🇩🇪 AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla says Germany should attempt to overhaul the EU before considering a referendum on leaving. They're now in the relationship phase where “we should work on us” comes with divorce papers already attached. Writer: Oliver t.co/5pgZPejKI9

🇺🇸 Trump called the father who TOOK DOWN the shooter at the Oregon school exactly that: A HERO "As bad as it was, we had a great hero who took care of business. Thank God we had him...thank goodness for a man that had a gun and knew how to use it." Kaylub Giamanco was heading home for lunch when he heard the shots at Silver Rail. The man has his 2 daughters in that school, so wait-and-see wasn't an option for him. Writer: Lucas t.co/tHJPN0G2Iu

🇺🇸 Trump is already telling his new press secretary she can walk away from the job. Katie Zacharia has barely completed her first week, and the president is publicly questioning whether she should stay. “I said to her, if I were you, I'd reconsider.” After a rocky White House debut and tough questioning from Sean Hannity, Trump says Zacharia has been treated unfairly. “She's been treated very rough. She's a nice person. I just want her to be happy.” Trump appointed her barely a week ago. Now he's openly discussing the possibility of her departure. Writer: Oliver t.co/Aqj1rx1WlC

🇺🇸 Trump is celebrating Elon after Tesla just made a car fly. And Trump's reaction is hilarious. “I'm VERY HAPPY for Elon! I don't know if you're gonna see ME in that car! VERY impressive.” Tesla's new Roadster used SpaceX-developed thrusters to launch itself over a Cybercab, Cybertruck, Semi, Model Y and Model 3 while in motion. It can even flip in midair and land back on its wheels. And just 8 days before the unveiling, Trump awarded Elon the National Medal of Science. Now the man builds a car that can literally jump over traffic. We went from electric cars to rocket-powered cars that fly. What an absolutely insane time to be alive. Writer: Oliver t.co/gZVuBPlLpg

🇺🇸🇮🇷 I had a deeply unsettling conversation with Professor Peter Kuznick about the possibility of nuclear weapons entering the conflict with Iran. What worries him most isn't necessarily a deliberate decision to start a global nuclear war. It's the growing belief among some military strategists that nuclear weapons can be used in a limited conflict without triggering something much worse. Kuznick argues that this is a dangerously flawed assumption. A tactical nuclear strike might be intended to force an adversary into submission. But the country being attacked could interpret it as the beginning of a much larger offensive and retaliate accordingly. Suddenly, leaders are making decisions involving millions of lives with incomplete information and only minutes to respond. We discussed the American president's authority to order a nuclear strike, the modernization of nuclear arsenals and the possibility that Iran's surviving nuclear infrastructure is buried beyond the reach of conventional American bombs. Kuznick fears that another failed attempt to destroy those facilities could increase pressure for more extreme military options. But he also raised something that deserves more attention. The danger isn't confined to Washington or Tehran. A confrontation involving Russia, China or North Korea could create similar pressures, especially if leaders begin to believe they can eliminate an opponent's ability to retaliate. Kuznick is now appealing to Pope Leo XIV to convene an emergency summit between the major nuclear powers. I don't think nuclear escalation is inevitable, and the discussion offered no evidence that Trump has decided to use a nuclear weapon against Iran. But Kuznick's central warning stayed with me. The most dangerous nuclear war may begin with someone convinced they're starting a limited one.

The Director of the Nuclear Studies Institute just told me Putin and Xi are acting more rationally than Trump And he reminded me that there are no checks and balances between the President of the United States and the nuclear codes

🇺🇸 The U.S. is trying to get another 17 million barrels of oil out of its emergency reserves. It's part of a deal Washington made with around 30 countries back in March to bring down fuel prices during the Iran war. The U.S. agreed to lend 172 million barrels, while the wider group planned to release 400 million barrels. But there's been a problem. Companies have to return the oil later, with up to 24% extra as payment. And the last offer already flopped. When Washington offered its final batch in June, companies only agreed to borrow about 500,000 barrels. Now it's trying again, with another 17 million barrels on offer. Whether companies actually want that oil is another story. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇾🇪🇸🇦 THE HOUTHIS ARE CLOSING IN ON TAIZ And Saudi Arabia could be about to lose something much bigger than a city.. Taiz is one of the last major obstacles standing between the Houthis and a much stronger position in southern Yemen. And right now, it's being slowly strangled. The Houthis have cut the main road to Aden, captured territory south of the city and sent more than 120,000 people fleeing across the province. Inside Taiz, food and medicine are running dangerously low. The UN has warned that wheat and flour supplies could run out within weeks. Nearly 600,000 people live in the city. Many have already survived years of war and siege. Now they're facing it all over again. Saudi warplanes are bombing Houthi positions, but the government's forces are struggling to stop the advance. And here's why this matters far beyond Yemen. If Taiz falls, the Houthis would be in a stronger position to threaten Aden and the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world's most important shipping routes. For Saudi Arabia, losing Taiz could fundamentally change the war it's been fighting for more than a decade. And for the people trapped inside the city, the clock is already ticking. Source: Reuters / Writer: Oliver

ELON JUST DECLARED WAR ON UGLY ADVERTISING ON X Having money to buy ad space is no longer enough. @ElonMusk says advertisers who flood X with ugly, obnoxious or exaggerated promotions will be BANNED from advertising. He's introducing an AESTHETIC standard for ads, meaning how an advertisement looks and presents itself could now determine whether it gets approved. The funniest part is that advertising has spent decades perfecting the art of being impossible to ignore... 😂 Now Elon forces advertisers to learn the art of being honest. Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 TRUMP JUST ANNOUNCED A 95% COLLAPSE IN ILLEGAL BORDER APPREHENSIONS The numbers are STAGGERING. The Department of Homeland Security has released its preliminary figures for fiscal year 2026, and the difference is enormous. Under Biden, southwest border apprehensions averaged more than 1.8 million annually. Under Trump, just 98,708 over the entire fiscal year. That's fewer than the 249,740 apprehensions recorded in a single peak month under Biden. And there's another historic milestone. For the first time, Border Patrol reports an entire fiscal year with ZERO migrant releases at the border. Nationwide encounters have also fallen to 379,243, the lowest annual figure in CBP's records. Whatever you might think of the political arguments surrounding Trump's immigration crackdown, the scale of the decline is extraordinary. Source: DHS, Fox News / Writer: Oliver

🇷🇴 Cristela says the campaign against Călin Georgescu did not stop when the election was cancelled. He tried to run again and was blocked. Then came the criminal cases. One alleging a coup attempt. Another involving fascism and antisemitism. And now a fraud case serious enough to place him under rules normally used for organized crime and terrorism. Cristela’s concern is not just the charges themselves. It’s that major political figures and much of the media, in her view, began treating him as guilty before the courts had established anything. “If he is unguilty, he has to prove that.” That is the part she finds most disturbing. Not simply that Călin is being prosecuted. But that the burden seems, in her eyes, to have flipped from the state proving guilt to him proving innocence. @CG_Romania

🇾🇪🇮🇷 OIL IS ABOVE $100 AGAIN, AND THE MIDDLE EAST IS MAKING IT VERY HARD TO COME BACK DOWN Brent is hovering around $106 a barrel, and it's not hard to see why traders are nervous. The Houthis have been hitting Saudi oil infrastructure, even striking Aramco's headquarters. Iran is going after ships in the Strait of Hormuz. So now it's not just about how much oil the world can produce, but whether anyone can get it out safely. And that's worrying more than the price itself. A short spike is one thing. But if oil stays this expensive for months, we'll feel it everywhere. Transport, groceries, flights, pretty much anything that has to be made or moved. The war might feel far away. The bill won't. Writer: Oliver

🇬🇧🇨🇿 Q: “Do you support Britain rejoining the EU?” Czech PM Andrej Babiš: “Yes, of course. We need more money.” Finally, a European integration argument with all the romance removed. Writer: Oliver t.co/U7HxyqA5YJ

🇷🇴 Cristela Georgescu says one of the strongest pieces of “evidence” used against their campaign was a €1 payment. Literally one euro. The transfer came after the campaign had already ended, with a message mocking Georgescu by referring to “Russian money.” Yet she says it still appeared in the case as proof that money had entered the campaign. The second part is even stranger. Cristela says ordinary TikTok users, many of them pensioners, were questioned about promoting Georgescu’s videos. Most denied being paid or even knowing him. And many were then fined €2,000 anyway. Her point is simple: If unpaid supporters sharing videos can be treated as undeclared campaign spending, then the definition of “campaign financing” becomes very elastic indeed. @CG_Romania

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi-backed forces are now OPENLY talking about PUSHING all the way into Yemen's capital The Saudi-led coalition has entered a new phase of its campaign, with simultaneous strikes targeting Houthi military positions, supply lines, energy sources and fortified sites in mountains and caves. The key objective is al-Bayda, whose highlands overlook Sanaa and could provide a strategic route toward the Houthi-held capital. The stated goal is no longer simply weakening the Houthis, the campaign is being described as one that will continue until forces reach the heart of Sanaa. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Samuel

🇷🇴 Cristela Georgescu says Romania feels more oppressive to her today than it did before communism fell. Not because the old system was freer. Because back then, she says, nobody pretended it was. “You knew you were not allowed to talk against it.” What disturbs her now is the contradiction: people are told they are free to speak and challenge the system, while she believes political dissent is punished underneath that democratic surface. “Today we are told, ‘You’re free.’” For someone who actually remembers Romania before 1989, that distinction is what frightens her most. Not open dictatorship. A system that still calls itself free while, in her view, behaving increasingly like one. @CG_Romania

🇩🇪🇮🇱🇵🇸 Thousands took the streets of Berlin last weekend, demanding an end to arms exports to Israel... Larger demonstrations earlier in the autumn drew TENS of thousands of participants. Ceasefire or not, these protests aren't stopping. Writer: Michael t.co/eSj4HbsYom

🇮🇩 Indonesia's Rupiah is COLLAPSING The country's stock market has just suffered its worst single-day crash since the 1998 Asian financial crisis. Nearly 12% wiped out in one trading session. The trigger? MSCI is threatening to strip Indonesia of its emerging-market status over serious concerns about stock market governance and transparency. That could force billions of dollars in foreign investment out of the country. Indonesia's stocks have already lost nearly 40% this year. And the real danger is what's about to come. A falling currency, collapsing equities and foreign investors heading for the exits can become a vicious cycle. This is how a stock market crisis risks becoming something much bigger. Source: Reuters / Writer: Oliver

🇬🇧 Another day in the modern "UK" Writer: Samuel t.co/HfPhVleqaz

🇪🇸🇩🇰 Denmark's left-wing PM is challenging Spain over its MASS legalization of undocumented migrants. Frederiksen is calling for the EU to examine Sánchez's regularization plan, arguing it goes against Europe's broader migration policy. The striking part: Frederiksen and Sánchez are both social democrats from the same European political family. Writer: Samuel t.co/JyS0zWQE06

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Iran is finding ways to SNEAK fuel exports right through the U.S. naval blockade... LPG has escaped through the Gulf of Oman, totaling an estimated 4.1 MILLION barrels. Tehran has reportedly concealed cargoes among the growing number of ship-to-ship transfers conducted by other Gulf producers off Oman. Most Iranian petroleum exports are still being stopped or redirected, and U.S. Central Command insists its blockade remains “ironclad.” But that might be too strong a word for it... Source: Reuters / Writer: Samuel

🇮🇷 Tanker on fire near Oman after getting hit. Iran claims the ship had its AIS turned off and was trying to pass through a restricted zone. More than 100 war-related incidents involving ships have now been recorded since the war began. Just a week ago, Iran warned that ships using unauthorized routes could be targeted anywhere in the region, not just in Hormuz. Writer: Daniyal t.co/Tus4NQLqve

🇷🇺 I don’t think that I even know anyone who can afford a $600,000 car. Just doesn’t seem like a wise investment. Writer: Jamie t.co/QjOGO2ru73

🇮🇹🇪🇺 This is in Turin, Italy. Like the rest of the EU, the kids are wilding out!! These student protests across Europe are starting to look more and more like a coordinated operation. Let’s go down the conspiracy theory rabbit hole, shall we? Could an outside actor be instigating these protests and pushing students to destabilize their governments? Adults are quick to spot when they’re being fed propaganda, but are parents paying attention to what their kids are being exposed to in school and online? Something to think about… 🤔 Writer: Jamie t.co/pJxWWWN4Pr

🇧🇾🇺🇦🇺🇸 Lukashenko on Zelensky: "It's not for Trump to decide who will be president of Ukraine. That's for the Ukrainian people to decide." Wow, unexpected... 😳 Writer: Samuel t.co/ZWeFQPUnvD