Mario Nawfal

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The battlefield picture in Ukraine is being described much more dramatically than the territorial changes justify. Robert Pape's estimate is that Russia has gone from controlling roughly 18% of Ukraine in 2022 to about 19% today. That matters because the cost has been enormous. Pape points to at least 250,000 confirmed Russian military deaths while gaining only about another 1% of Ukrainian territory. His argument is that this is not a story of rapid Russian conquest. It is a grinding war of attrition where very small territorial gains are being purchased at extraordinary human cost. And if that pace continues, even taking the remaining four oblasts could still take years. @ProfessorPape

🇩🇪🇸🇾 German AfD's Alice Weidel: “100%” of Syrians in Germany should return because the war is over. Subtlety has apparently also been deported. 🫣😆 Writer: Oliver t.co/veL68nBcG0

🇮🇱 Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana has had enough. “Everyone in this hall knows the truth. Israel is not committing genocide. Enough with this despicable lie!” Well, if everyone in the room knows the truth, I guess that settles the entire international debate 🤷🏽‍♀️ Writer: Lynn t.co/nR3NkvDUuK

🇩🇪 German AfD's Alice Weidel: “We need to take Russia's security interests into account. Ignoring Russia's security interests has been the major mistake that we've made.” She's challenging one of the central arguments behind Europe's Russia policy. But that pierces the question at the heart of the debate: Where does recognizing Russia's security concerns end, and accepting its demands over neighboring countries begin? @Alice_Weidel / Writer: Oliver t.co/3dq4LDNvHu

🇩🇪 Interview with German AfD's Alice Weidel: Reporter: “Can you give me one piece of evidence that Putin is interested in peace?” Weidel: “Can you give me one piece of evidence that Zelensky is interested in peace?” She challenges the assumption behind the question and I think it's spot on. Nobody can answer either claim confidently. @Alice_Weidel / Writer: Oliver t.co/YlBSSkZvtW

🇮🇷🇴🇲 The IEA is rushing out even more emergency oil, starting with diesel. Its member countries have already released 330 million barrels since March to make up for the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Another 100 million barrels are still on the way, pushing the total past the original 400 million target. Next up is more than 20 million barrels of diesel, as soon as possible, since that’s where the shortage is worst. For scale, that’s more than double what the IEA released in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Earlier this month, just 7 tankers were tracked through Hormuz in a single day. So the real question is what happens when the reserves run low and the strait still isn’t open. Source: IEA / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸 Trump got handed a helmet, and the explanation was even better. “We want you to be protected.” The man has Secret Service protection, but someone decided he needed a helmet too. Writer: Lynn t.co/TMcZzNFOBs

🇩🇪 German AfD's Alice Weidel: “The Ukraine cannot win against Russia. It's impossible. The war is already lost.” Is continued Western support capable of changing the outcome, or merely prolonging the fighting? Weidel's answer couldn't be clearer. @Alice_Weidel / Writer: Oliver t.co/rhKxfsNH0x

🇺🇸🇸🇴 CAN TRUMP ACTUALLY STRIP ILHAN OMAR OF HER CITIZENSHIP AND DEPORT HER? This has already gone well beyond political threats. Federal agents have searched Ilhan Omar's home, seized her passport, phone and computers, and subpoenaed members of her family. According to the Wall Street Journal, investigators are digging into immigration paperwork from more than 25 years ago, trying to determine whether Omar or her late father misrepresented her age when she obtained citizenship. Omar denies wrongdoing and calls the investigation politically motivated. Think about where this has gotten. The woman has served in Congress since 2019, and could now face a legal fight over whether she was ever entitled to the American citizenship that made her eligible for office... And this is unfolding less than 3 weeks before the midterms. No charges have been announced, and taking away her citizenship would require court proceedings. But the investigation has already reached her home, her family and her personal devices. Source: The Wall Street Journal, Axios / Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 Marjorie Taylor Greene delivers a brutal verdict on Trump's presidency. “Practically everything the Trump admin has done has failed.” That's one of Trump's most prominent former allies. Greene is responding to reports that America's campaign of bombing suspected drug-smuggling boats has failed to stop the cocaine trade. More than 70 vessels destroyed, nearly 240 people killed, and cocaine is still reaching international markets in record quantities. But what really stands out is how far Greene has turned against Trump. Writer: Oliver

🇮🇷🇾🇪🇵🇰 Another major Iran war may not stay confined to Iran, Yemen, or even the Gulf. Robert Pape thinks a wider escalation could start reactivating militant networks across places like Balochistan and Pakistan. That matters because the second-order effects can last much longer than the original war. Pape points to Iraq as the cautionary example: the invasion did not just reshape Iraq. It helped destabilize the wider region and contributed to conditions in which groups like ISIS emerged. His concern is that the same pattern could happen again, only with more advanced drones and AI added to the mix. The war itself may be only the first crisis. The bigger danger is what gets activated around it. @ProfessorPape

🇺🇸 Trump predicted how the media would question him about him having “serious problems.” Then admitted he has no idea what those problems actually are... He fact-checked himself before CNN even had the chance. Smart move 👍 Writer: Oliver t.co/N27aTE27XH

🇺🇸 Trump really isn't holding back on Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. “He hates our country. So I hope that he is defeated.” Trump accused El-Sayed of making disparaging remarks about a place in Michigan he described as “very revered.” Okay, okay we get it. You hate Abdul…I mean Mohammad. Writer: Lynn t.co/0oe8s3HLBy

🇪🇸🇲🇦 Pedro Sánchez says Spain wants “the best possible relations” with Morocco. Diplomatic for: PLEASE let’s keep this from becoming weird again. Writer: Oliver t.co/SymQjTWR7c

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 Robert Pape: the biggest mistake in planning another short war with Iran is assuming only Iran gets to respond. His point is that this is no longer a two-player conflict. Iran, the US, Israel and the Houthis are all tied into the same escalation chain. So even if Trump intends a 3-day strike and then wants to walk away, the Houthis may see that as the moment to attack American ships before they become the next target. “This is World War One.” Not because the situations are identical. Because once one actor moves, the next move suddenly becomes rational for someone else. And then the war stops following the plan that started it. @ProfessorPape

🇺🇸 After being handed a firefighter's helmet meant to symbolize protection, Trump immediately brought up the 2024 shooting in Butler. “I could have used this in Butler. This would have been very helpful.” Such a typical Trump response. Writer: Lynn t.co/XpTWmq8IxI

🇺🇸 Trump has a pretty simple reason for staying away from alcohol and cigarettes. “I have some very severe problems, but smoking and drinking are not one of them. I don’t want to add them to the list. If I did, I wouldn’t be here right now.” He's sticking with the problems he already knows. Writer: Daniyal t.co/aNoBgl8K3r

🇬🇧 New details have emerged about the former child actor killed by a tiger at a British wildlife park. William Chapman, 24, reportedly climbed TWO fences to enter the enclosure before approaching a 200kg Siberian tiger. The animal attacked and killed him in front of horrified visitors. A coroner has now confirmed the sequence of events, while Chapman's family has raised concerns about the mental health care he received before his death. The tiger will not be euthanized. Source: NY Post / Writer: Oliver

🇰🇷 South Korea's president is taking to X with a message about suicide prevention. President Lee Jae-myung says no life is more precious than another and that his government is working to reduce suicide deaths. He's especially concerned about young people, with academic pressure, intense competition and bullying among the issues he's calling attention to. I wonder if it's because we're so focused on raising successful kids that we're forgetting to raise happy ones. Source: @jaemyung_lee / Writer: Lynn

🇺🇸 Trump just casually declared himself not controversial. Talking about Ken Paxton, he said: “I understand some people are controversial. I don’t happen to be a controversial person.” Uhhm, sir, you might be the only person on Earth who thinks so 😂 Writer: Lynn t.co/MSKk7jduIt

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Pentagon may BE HOLDING BACK A REPORT on the KILLING OF 123 IRANIAN CHILDREN until after the MIDTERMS This is an enormous story. Advisers to Pete Hegseth are reportedly planning to delay the release of an investigation into the U.S. strike on an elementary school in Minab, Iran. More than 150 people were killed, including at least 123 children. Investigators reportedly found that outdated intelligence, flawed imagery and excessive reliance on AI contributed to the disaster. And the report has apparently been almost finished for months. Now we're hearing that senior Pentagon officials want to keep it from the public until Americans have voted... If the findings are ready, what possible justification is there for making the families wait until after an election?! Source: Bloombergh / Writer: Oliver

🇸🇦🇾🇪 The Houthis have targeted Riyadh’s airport 20 times this month, and they won’t even sit down to talk. Saudi Arabia says it asked them to meet in Oman when the fighting started, but they said no, and the 2 sides haven’t spoken since. The Houthis don’t seem to mind. Earlier this week, one of their leaders said they’d already turned down ceasefire offers of 2 weeks and 1 month. It’s not hard to see the logic. With Riyadh’s airport shut and oil bosses staying away, every strike gives them more to bargain with. Source: The Times of Israel / Writer: Daniyal

🇹🇷🇪🇬🇮🇱🇮🇷 Col. Douglas Macgregor thinks another major Iran war could eventually redraw the Middle East. His concern is not just Iran retaliating against the Gulf, but what happens if the conflict keeps widening. “Syria is effectively the new border between the Turks and the Israelis.” Macgregor believes Turkey would be watching Israeli actions in Gaza and the West Bank closely, and that if Ankara ever moved militarily, Egypt could follow. That is a huge, highly speculative scenario. But his broader point is that once several regional powers start intervening directly, the conflict stops being about Iran alone. It becomes a fight over the entire postwar order of the Middle East. @DougAMacgregor

🇺🇸 They keep dropping GTA VI trailers and the graphics still look unreal every single time. This Launch Trailer has the debut of “Flower in a Hurricane” from Justice feat. Tame Impala, SZA, and King Gizzard, and the retro 80s vibe actually fits Vice City really well. The wait ends November 19. About time. 🔥 Writer: Daniyal t.co/Ksmbabxxsj

🇺🇸 Trump: “We’re bringing back the death penalty for anybody that kills a police officer, or anybody in law enforcement.” And his administration has already ordered the Justice Department to make those cases a priority. The message is unmistakable. Writer: Oliver t.co/hnwGdmGEw1

🇺🇲 Ex-South Dakota gov. and renowned dog-lover Kristi Noem had some sugary-sweet words for Trump and his ilk. "That man has given up more for this country than anybody in history, has taken more persecution, his family has suffered, yet they keep stepping up and serving and doing the right thing." Somewhere, Abraham Lincoln is like, “WTF?” Writer: Marie t.co/tkzeyQcCPe

🇺🇲 Diddy’s family is DENYING that a PRISON KINGPIN clocked him in the clink.    Word on the prison walls is that Jamaican drug lord "Dudus" got pissed over the revelation of the VIP treatment that takes place in lockup. It allegedly led to blows and claims that Diddy was decked so hard on the head he had to seek outside treatment. Still, his family is blaming a bunk bed for the injury. Does Trump pardon furniture? Source: TMZ / Writer: Marie

🇸🇦🇾🇪 The Houthis may be looking beyond Yemen and toward Saudi territory I spoke with Pepe Escobar about the escalating war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis, and he raised a possibility I hadn't seriously considered. What if the Houthis are no longer thinking exclusively about Yemen? Pepe pointed to a recent statement by Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree denying that his forces had attacked Saudi territory. That might sound ordinary, except Pepe believes there's a deliberate distinction being made. The Houthis have reportedly targeted Najran, a Saudi border province with historical ties to Yemen. Pepe suspects the denial reflects something much bigger: the Houthis may increasingly regard Najran, along with other southern Saudi provinces, as territory they have a right to reclaim. That's a significant interpretation, although the statement alone doesn't establish any territorial plan. We also discussed Saudi Arabia's attempts to bring Turkey and Pakistan into the conflict. Pepe believes neither government wants a direct war with the Houthis, despite their security commitments to Riyadh. And he sees the fighting in Yemen as inseparable from the confrontation between Washington and Tehran. What concerns me is how the terms of this conflict could change. Saudi Arabia may be looking for a ceasefire that restores the previous balance. But if the Houthis believe they're gaining the upper hand, they could start demanding considerably more than an end to the bombing. A war Saudi Arabia hoped to contain inside Yemen could become a dispute over Saudi Arabia's own borders. @RealPepeEscobar

🇺🇲 Diddy’s family is DENYING that a PRISON KINGPIN clocked him in the clink.    Word on the prison walls is that Jamaican drug lord "Dudus" got pissed over the revelation of the VIP treatment that takes place in lockup. It allegedly led to blows and claims that Diddy was decked so hard on the head he had to seek outside treatment. Still, his family is blaming a bunk bed for the injury. Does Trump pardon furniture? Source: TMZ / Writer: Marie

🇺🇸🇲🇽 Trump has a very interesting way of talking about Mexico's president. “The cartels run Mexico. I tell that to the president of Mexico. She is a great woman, but the cartels run Mexico.” Quite the compliment sandwich. Writer: Lynn t.co/qTOnXzxr0L