Mario Nawfal

Keith McCullough: The AI bubble is already bursting, and the worst may still be ahead. I spoke with Hedgeye founder Keith McCullough as markets took another beating, and even he was caught off guard. He had invested in Brazil ahead of the election. Lula won, Brazilian stocks plunged, and Keith took a painful loss. But his bigger concern is America. He believes the AI bubble is already collapsing beneath the surface, with some of the most speculative stocks down roughly 75% from their peaks. Meanwhile, oil remains above $100, inflation is accelerating, and another war with Iran could leave the Federal Reserve unable to rescue markets. Keith thinks U.S economic growth could fall from nearly 4% to just 1% within nine months. Ordinary families are already struggling with prices, job insecurity and the cost of war. Now the wealth created by the AI boom could start disappearing, too. And Keith fears that if Washington responds by bailing out wealthy investors again, the public backlash could be enormous. @KeithMcCullough

🇮🇷 Somebody in Iran caught a missile flying right over their head. It’s from the U.S.-Israel war with Iran earlier this year, reportedly an American Tomahawk, and you can see it zoom across the sky and smash straight into the mountains. That's a pretty terrifying reminder of what the war looked like on the ground. Writer: Daniyal t.co/Q2Y87tNlHw

BRAZIL HAS FALLEN!

WTF IS GOING ON!?! Bolsonaro, who won the first round of the elections, but somehow lost last night, has now had the Brazilian Feds confiscate his passport?!?!

🇺🇳🇮🇱🇵🇸 A UN inquiry says Israel's genocide in Gaza didn't stop with the ceasefire. In its new report, the commission found Israeli forces kept using heavy weapons, drones, artillery and snipers in crowded areas during the truce that started last October. On top of that, the line Israel drew as a temporary ceasefire boundary has been creeping deeper into Gaza, slowly turning into a real border. Things have gotten worse in the West Bank too, with 254 Palestinians killed in airstrikes alone since October 2023, compared with just 6 in the 15 years before. Israel brushed it off as a misinformation campaign, the same way it called the commission's genocide finding scandalous last year. The denials stay the same, and Israel keeps committing genocide. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ryan Grim: America is in a much worse position to fight Iran again. Oil is roughly $50 more expensive per barrel, borrowing costs have surged, and the US has burned through enormous amounts of ammunition. Meanwhile, American carriers must operate farther from Iranian threats, forcing the military to rely on missiles costing millions against drones costing a fraction of that. Grim's point is simple: The first war began with cheaper oil, fuller stockpiles and a better-prepared military. Why would a second round go better? @ryangrim

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ryan Grim: Netanyahu may see another Iran war as his best chance to stay in power. With his political future uncertain, another war could make it harder for Israel's opposition to form a government with Palestinian parties. Grim says that could leave Netanyahu governing in a caretaker role, buying himself more time. Meanwhile, Trump keeps pointing to the US midterms as the dividing line for renewed military action. But Grim suspects the repeated promises to wait until after the election could mean something happens sooner. Two elections. One war. And a lot of political calculations behind the timing. @ryangrim

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Ryan Grim: Netanyahu may see another Iran war as his best chance to stay in power. With his political future uncertain, another war could make it harder for Israel's opposition to form a government with Palestinian parties. Grim says that could leave Netanyahu governing in a caretaker role, buying himself more time. Meanwhile, Trump keeps pointing to the US midterms as the dividing line for renewed military action. But Grim suspects the repeated promises to wait until after the election could mean something happens sooner. Two elections. One war. And a lot of political calculations behind the timing. @ryangrim

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷Israel's military is pushing back as the Middle East edges closer to another war. I went through the latest developments with Brandon Weichert, and the situation is getting increasingly complicated. Israeli media reports a growing split inside the security establishment over Netanyahu's plans to strike Iran. IDF chief Eyal Zamir is resisting, while even Mossad is reportedly divided. Meanwhile, a massive explosion rocked a weapons depot in Syria. The cause remains unknown. Saudi, Turkish and Pakistani officials met with Iranian representatives in Tehran, even as Washington moves more military assets toward the region. Brandon fears the next American operation could involve Marines landing on Iranian-held territory, not just another bombing campaign. Hezbollah is rebuilding its arsenal with Iranian funding. A tanker was reported burning off Iraq's coast. And the Houthis are continuing their attacks on Saudi Arabia, with Egypt now preparing to help defend the kingdom. The part that worries me most is how quickly extraordinary events are becoming routine. A missile attack on an airport. A burning tanker. Another country preparing to send troops. Six months ago, any one of these would have dominated the news. Now they're happening alongside each other. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸 Suburban parents really called 911 because a 3-year-old was outplaying their kids so badly it hurt their feelings… Participation trophy culture has reached a whole new level of absurd. This is a little mini Messi in the making 🔥 Writer: Bri t.co/p1ZcSL5mZB

🇺🇸 Pentagon is preparing U.S. bases in case WAR reaches home. Internal documents reportedly require every major base in the continental U.S. to run on its own for at least 90 days. Installations are getting portable nuclear reactors and private water systems to run 3 months solo. Hegseth says the U.S can no longer count on two oceans to protect it. He calls it an insurance policy, and you only buy insurance for something you think could happen… Writer: Bri t.co/OB69JZyQjG

🇮🇱🇮🇷🇺🇸 Netanyahu says he isn't firing his army chief, calling it fake news. Earlier, 2 Israeli TV channels reported he might fire him if he wins the election. The 2 men have reportedly been clashing over Iran, with the army chief seeking written authorization and legal approval before acting on his orders. Netanyahu says those channels are just spreading panic before the vote, and that he and the army chief will keep working together. And he didn't stop there, promising to end Iran's nuclear threat for good and sign peace deals with more countries. That's a lot of promises with the election just a day away. Writer: Daniyal

🇧🇷 Flávio Bolsonaro WAS ORDERED to surrender his passport a day after losing to Lula Supreme Court Justice Alexandre de Moraes issued the order, delivered by police as Flávio left his father’s home. The judge cited fears he might flee, partly based on a comment by his brother Eduardo. Flávio denies saying it and calls the move intimidation. After losing an election, he now faces a passport seizure ordered by the same judge who jailed his father. WTF is happening in Brazil?!?! Writer: Lucas t.co/I0ndlPO0RW

🇨🇳 China’s AI stocks have lost $480 billion in under 4 months. A key index tracking China’s top AI and chip companies is down 40%, while the U.S. Nasdaq has only dropped about 6% from its peak. Plenty of regular investors have taken losses. AI stocks now make up 42% of the value of Chinese shares listed in China and Hong Kong. One robot company, Unitree, had demand 8,000 times bigger than the shares on offer when it launched, and it’s now lost half its value since August. Nothing big set it off, but traders blame prices that got too high, tax bills, and fears the U.S. could ban Chinese equipment from its data centers. Even after the drop, the STAR50 index is still trading at about 100 times annual earnings, compared with around 30 times for the Nasdaq 100. That’s why plenty of investors think the worst isn’t over yet. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

PETER SCHIFF: THE NEXT FINANCIAL CRISIS COULD HIT BEFORE THE AI BOOM EVEN PAYS OFF I spoke with Peter about something that's been bothering me: oil is soaring, borrowing costs are climbing, and yet markets seem remarkably comfortable with the risks. He thinks investors are missing the bigger danger. AI companies are borrowing enormous sums to build data centers, with no guarantee the profits will arrive in time to repay the debt. Meanwhile, governments are competing for the same capital, inflation is rising, and higher interest rates are putting pressure on banks and homeowners. He believes the housing market could be the first major casualty, with losses spreading through the financial system. And another escalation with Iran would only add to the pressure. His warning is that we could face a sovereign debt crisis before anyone finds out whether the AI boom was worth the money. @PeterSchiff

🇺🇸 Trump says he’ll give a $1M bonus to anyone who reports voter fraud that leads to an arrest and conviction He framed it as a reward for people who help catch it. At this rate, he might end up writing a lot of checks. Writer: Lucas t.co/lTLJuJaAWF

🇺🇸🇧🇷 Trump was asked whether he plans to do something about Brazil’s election. “I’m not running Brazil. I’m running the USA.” He says he likes Lula and gets along with him very well, but he called the voting extension very strange. With Bolsonaro planning legal action, that extension could get a much closer look. Writer: Daniyal t.co/b9RiPXBTAq

🇮🇱🇮🇷 Israel’s army chief reportedly wants written guarantees before following orders on Iran. Eyal Zamir got instructions from the government and asked for a full discussion and legal approval, signatures and all, before acting on them. Nobody’s saying what the orders were, but one source says they could suddenly drag Israel into another fight with Iran. With elections tomorrow, the army is also worried the Iran issue could be used to give Netanyahu a political boost. Netanyahu says there’s no clash at all, pointing out that Zamir himself said Iran was trying to mess with the elections. Either way, Zamir reportedly wants this one on paper. Source: Channel 12 / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Trump says Netanyahu has done a very good job as PM under trying conditions To say the least.... he’s one of the few friends Netanyahu still has right now 😬 Writer: Lucas t.co/T3LSAgKDug

🇺🇸🇧🇷 Mamdani heard New Yorkers CHANTING Lula’s name and treated it like proof the city is excited He congratulated the Brazilian president and said the bar crowd proved “the people united will never be defeated.” Same energy that keeps promising results in NYC while rents climb, streets get worse, and the same policies keep getting rebranded. A lot of New Yorkers are not excited at all... Writer: Lucas t.co/i4AXsnfxj0

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Treasury Secretary Bessent can't see why Iran's regime thinks it needs a nuclear weapon. "If they would say that they don't want a nuclear weapon, then the world would embrace the Iranians." Iran insists its program is peaceful, and trust is the missing piece. Writer: Daniyal t.co/nE5KvdRwwd

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Bessent says the U.S. is HAPPY to lift sanctions on Iranian officials who work with them He said the goal is to get the regime to the negotiating table, and that those who cooperate could keep 30% of what they’re holding for the government. The offer is aimed at splitting people inside the system rather than waiting for the whole thing to collapse. Writer: Lucas t.co/W3Yh0sykf9

🇺🇸 Trump says he’ll “take a look” at Machado going back to Venezuela and any debt restructuring That’s the classic soft "no." He didn’t close the door, but he also didn’t open it. When the answer is “we’ll see,” it usually means not right now 🤣 Writer: Lucas t.co/ae3BUFKkbq

🇺🇲🇮🇷 Trump may still strike Iran before the midterms, but his own team is starting to push back. I spoke with Drop Site News co-founder Ryan Grim about the growing resistance to another war with Iran. His reporting suggests Trump wanted Israel to strike first, provoking an Iranian response that would give Washington a reason to intervene. But Netanyahu ran into an unexpected obstacle: his OWN military chief. Ryan also told me Trump has come close to restarting major combat operations against Iran or Yemen seven times since July, only to pull back. And this time, even people inside the administration are questioning whether another attack would accomplish anything. What makes this particularly worrying is that nobody seems confident they can predict Trump's next decision. We could be days away from another war, and the people preparing for it aren't even convinced it can be won. @ryangrim

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Treasury Secretary Bessent thinks Iran is hiding how far its currency has fallen. “I think it’s through three million, and that’s why they’ve stopped printing the price.” He also expects Iran’s economy to shrink by more than 25% in the year to March 2027, a worse hit than he says the Soviet Union took after it collapsed. Whatever the real number is, the rial has had a brutal year. Writer: Daniyal t.co/6SuET9tY3l

🇮🇱🇺🇸🇨🇳 Netanyahu BRAGS that the Palantir CEO called Israel the third AI power after the U.S. and China He quoted Alex Karp saying Europe is worth nothing, then added that the man still put Israel on the list. A ranking is one thing; lasting strength is harder when the same leadership keeps damaging the country’s global standing. Writer: Lucas t.co/iSa7CG1XFR

🇺🇸🇧🇷 Trump isn’t buying Lula’s win in Brazil’s runoff. “It looked like another rigged election, frankly.” He says he didn’t take sides, but he still called the whole thing a terrible look. Lula won a 4th term, and Flávio Bolsonaro is refusing to accept it and says he’ll challenge the result in court. Trump’s comments could give Bolsonaro’s legal fight extra fuel. Writer: Daniyal t.co/bTkVYS848p

🇺🇸 Vance says gas prices SPIKE every time some tinpot dictator throws a tantrum He added that Democrats’ answer is just to complain and put up a few windmills. Of course, it has NOTHING at all to do with Trump bombing the crap out of Iran because Israel told him to Writer: Lucas t.co/udqnIaoSbN

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇹🇷 Treasury Secretary Bessent blames Iran’s regime for its economy. “Forty-seven years ago, the Iranian economy was bigger than the Turkish economy.” Now he says Turkey’s economy is 3.5 to 4 times bigger, and he puts the blame entirely on the regime’s choices. Quite a gap for 2 neighbors with roughly the same population. Writer: Daniyal t.co/vGGq25SXGA

🇺🇸 Bessent says Iran has NO OIL on the water for the first time since oil was discovered He told the Iranian people to buy heating oil now and start hoarding gasoline, pointing to zero loadings at Kharg Island and production already beginning to slow. No tankers leaving means the money stops coming in, and regular Iranians end up paying the price first. Writer: Lucas t.co/VM82v7i42w