🇨🇳🇺🇸 China's economy was 77% the size of America's in 2021 and has shrunk to 67%... the overtake that was supposed to happen before 2020 is now penciled in for 2040 at best
Chinese retail sales growth has fallen to roughly zero, household borrowing has been contracting for two years, and the banks have stopped lending to businesses and started hoarding government bonds instead.
Jeffrey Snider, who runs Eurodollar University, says the China-overtakes-America story died in 2008 when the world stopped buying enough of what China's factories make, and Beijing's only exit is inventing the next industrial revolution itself:
"You can't steal your way to prosperity."
Jeff says the Soviets tried that for 20 years and still collapsed, and China is already halfway into Japan's lost decades, minus the banking blowup that made Japan's official.
The Communist Party's whole plan is to hold the pieces together until a technology breakthrough that has to arrive by the 2030s or not at all.
@JeffSnider_EDU
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