Mario Nawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The next Iran escalation could turn into total war I spoke with retired U.S. Army Lieutenant Colonel Anthony Aguilar about what another round of American and Israeli strikes on Iran might actually look like. He believes it could happen within days, before the Israeli elections. But what disturbed me most was his reaction to new accounts from American troops describing damaged bases, inadequate shelters and chaotic evacuations during earlier Iranian attacks. Anthony has served at some of those very bases. He says they were never designed to withstand sustained ballistic missile strikes. Then we discussed what comes next. He expects Iran to retaliate against U.S. installations across the Gulf, but fears the fighting could go much further, with power stations, desalination plants and other civilian infrastructure becoming targets. I pressed him on the consequences of systematically attacking water supplies in a region where millions depend on desalination. His fear is that the next escalation could destroy infrastructure that entire populations depend on to survive. And even if the fighting with Iran eventually stops, Anthony worries the conflicts spreading through Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the Red Sea could continue long afterward.

🇪🇹 ETHIOPIA IS ERUPTING INTO DEADLY ETHNIC CLASHES HUNDREDS OF CIVILIANS ARE FLEEING INTO KENYA The border town of Moyale has become a battleground between Oromo and Somali regional forces. And the latest bloodshed reportedly began over a flag. A dispute over which regional government controls part of the town escalated into gunfire, leaving a 13-year-old girl dead. Now homes have reportedly been attacked, rival armed groups are fighting in the streets, and Ethiopian federal troops have been deployed to contain the violence. Local reports put the death toll above 17, with around 100 injured, although those figures remain unconfirmed. Meanwhile, hundreds of terrified civilians, many of them women and children, are crossing into Kenya. An argument over who gets to fly a flag has reignited a territorial conflict, and ordinary families are paying for it with their lives. Source: KWETU News, Reuters, AP, @TabzLIVE on TG / Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸🇦🇪🇸🇦 New book claims Gulf leaders gave Kushner secret access to $2 billion Investigative journalist Matthew Cole says UAE and Saudi leaders put the money into at least 2 accounts tied to Kushner during Trump’s first term, and that Kushner never disclosed his access to them. And the way it surfaced is wild. Dutch spies flipped a Russian hacker, slipped into a Russian server, and found screenshots of Kushner’s phone sitting right there. So they found a way into his phone themselves, and watched him log into a Dubai bank account holding hundreds of millions of dollars. Kushner’s lawyers say he has no knowledge of any such accounts and never broke any laws, insisting there are no accounts and never were. The book drops next week, and these are some pretty serious claims that still need independent verification. Source: Vanity Fair / Writer: Daniyal

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRAN is ACCUSING THE WEST of hiding who started the war by simply calling it the “IRAN CONFLICT” And there's actual academic research behind the argument. Iranian Foreign Ministry spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei points to a study by American University researchers. Their finding? America's 2003 invasion became the “Iraq War,” while Russia's 2022 invasion is routinely described as Russia's war against Ukraine. One name leaves the invading country out. The other puts it front and center. Now Tehran is asking why the fighting involving America and Israel is so often labeled the “Iran conflict.” Baqaei argues that putting Iran in the title while leaving Washington and Israel unnamed subtly shifts the public's understanding of responsibility. The researchers' broader point: Even the words we use to describe wars can reflect the interests of the countries powerful enough to name them. And once a name sticks, millions of people repeat it without thinking twice. Writer: Oliver

🇮🇱🇶🇦 Netanyahu says he can’t be pro-Qatar because he bombed it “They accuse me of being pro-Qatar. I attacked Qatar.” Proving you’re not pro-Qatar by bombing Qatar is the most Netanyahu answer possible. Writer: Daniyal t.co/YPkdIt4fNy

Ever seen a dragonfly up close? Looks like a tiny alien trying to figure out whether you're edible. Writer: Oliver t.co/0JG0Ll76GC

Daily News Recap 🇸🇦🇾🇪 Even if the latest Saudi strike triggered this round of fighting, the conflict itself never really ended The blockade remained in place after the 2022 ceasefire. Meanwhile, the situation is escalating fast. Houthi strikes have hit Saudi oil infrastructure and King Fahd International Airport, while Reuters reported Aramco staff were told to leave headquarters and work remotely. This is moving well beyond a border skirmish. @WeTheBrandon

🇸🇾 EXPLOSION IN SYRIA: A blast has reportedly rocked the area near the old bridge in Deir ez-Zor, with footage showing security forces at the scene overnight. The cause remains a MYSTERY, with no suspects identified and no injuries reported so far. Source: wfwitness (TG) / Writer: Sol

🇺🇸 The U.S. plans to put $175 million into a fusion startup backed by Jared Kushner’s brother The startup is called Helion, and the government would get a non-voting stake in return. It’s got some big names behind it, like Josh Kushner’s investment firm, Peter Thiel’s fund and OpenAI boss Sam Altman, who owns about a third of it. Helion wants to open the world’s first fusion power plant by 2028, basically copying the reaction that powers the Sun. Scientists have made fusion happen in labs, but nobody has turned it into a power plant that can reliably supply electricity yet. As for the Kushner link, his firm says neither it nor Josh talked to the administration about the deal. If Helion cracks it, Washington would own a slice of the future, and if it doesn’t, the old joke about fusion always being 10 years away gets another decade. Source: Financial Times / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇦🇷🇺 Zelensky thinks even RUSSIA would be safer if Ukraine joined NATO. Yes, the same NATO expansion Moscow has spent years opposing. He argues that NATO membership would provide Russia with greater security than keeping Ukraine outside the alliance. “I believe that even the Russians need Ukraine to join NATO, because that would provide them with greater security than Ukraine remaining outside NATO.” Dude, I don't know who advised you to say that, but it wasn't exactly the smartest thing you've ever said. Writer: Sol t.co/fcGS31cbX3

Daily News Recap 🇮🇷 The biggest escalation risk may now come from Iran’s command structure itself. Tehran has reactivated its “Mosaic” defense doctrine, giving regional IRGC commanders more freedom to act if they think a strike is coming. That means a local commander could misread aircraft movements as the start of an attack and fire first. No direct order from Tehran required. That’s the dangerous part. Once decision-making gets pushed downward during a crisis, one bad read can turn a standoff into a war. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸 The Trump administration announced nearly $249 million to make seeing a doctor easier in rural Alaska That money is going into 254 projects, like X-ray machines right in village clinics and video calls that link pregnant moms in 32 remote towns with doctors. In some villages, folks with long-term illnesses will get checked on every day without leaving home, and in others, high school kids will be able to train as nursing assistants before they even graduate. It all comes from a $50 billion rural health fund in the big tax law Republicans passed last year, the same one that cut Medicaid spending. When your nearest doctor can be a plane ride away, having an X-ray machine down the road changes a lot. Source: CMS / Writer: Daniyal

Daily News Recap 🇮🇱🇺🇸🇮🇷 Israel may strike Iran first, with the U.S. following immediately behind. Iran is already threatening a much wider retaliation. Not just oil and tankers. Data centers, internet cables, AI infrastructure and Gulf energy sites are all being mentioned. If the assumption is right, the next phase may spread far beyond the usual military targets. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇦🇺🇸 Zelensky wants U.S. security guarantees that Congress votes on this time “We trust the United States because we are not discussing another Budapest Memorandum, not just a piece of paper, with all due respect to those who signed it.” Ukraine agreed to give up its nukes in 1994 for promises Russia signed too, so the caution makes sense. Writer: Daniyal t.co/tNyhaFI7Na

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇪🇺 The next Iran escalation could trigger a financial crisis in Europe. I spoke with economist Philip Pilkington about what another major round of U.S. strikes on Iran could mean for the global economy. His concern isn't just oil reaching $120 or $125 a barrel. It's what happens when that shock hits countries already struggling with debt, inflation and rising borrowing costs. Philip believes France could eventually need an ECB bailout, with Britain potentially next. And he fears the fallout could spread into U.S. Treasury markets. But I challenged him on something. Foreign holdings of American debt are actually rising, despite China and Japan selling. Doesn't that suggest investors still trust U.S. Treasuries? Philip thinks that confidence could disappear quickly if European governments are forced to sell assets to defend their own economies. He also suspects gold is replacing Treasuries as the ultimate safe haven, although he acknowledged that hasn't been proven. What worries me is how little room governments seem to have left for another major shock. A war that starts in the Gulf could end up testing the financial foundations of Europe and America. @philippilk

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Republican Senator Roger Marshall just admitted what's hurting his campaign, and he didn't even hesitate. Fox News asked whether it was Iran, gasoline, diesel, or all three. Marshall went straight to fuel prices. “It is the cost of gasoline and the cost of diesel. No doubt about it.” That's a pretty revealing answer. Voters might support a tough foreign policy, but they're still the ones filling up their cars and paying more for everything delivered by truck. The war is thousands of miles away. The bill though shows up at the nearest gas station. Writer: Oliver t.co/d7sxZuIr5q

🇿🇦 This South African dad turned a carjacking into the worst day of the gang's lives His car got boxed in right outside his home, one guy put a gun to his son's head at the gate and another started shooting at him. So he pulled his own gun and fired straight back from the driver's seat. All 3 attackers reportedly ended up dead. Wrong family, wrong dad, wrong day. Somebody give this man a medal. Writer: Daniyal t.co/nES39xTJSL

🇺🇦🇪🇺🇺🇸 Europe has missile agreements with Ukraine, but Washington still holds the FINAL SAY on whether those weapons can be delivered. Zelensky says his agreements with European countries remain in place, yet the missiles cannot be transferred without American approval. “I have agreements with the Europeans, and those agreements remain in place. But the Europeans can only transfer the missiles when the American side approves it.” So even with European commitments on the table, Ukraine is still waiting for a green light from the US. Writer: Sol t.co/zwzUXUo2Ho

🇷🇺🇪🇺 Retired Royal Navy Commondore Steve Jermy puts the risk of a NATO-Russia war at roughly 50/50. His concern: Europe is helping enable long-range strikes on Russian infrastructure, while Moscow has openly warned it may respond in kind. He also thinks Europe is badly exposed if that happens. “We do not have the capabilities to defend ourselves against hypersonic or ballistic missile attacks.” Jermy’s fear is that one retaliatory strike on a missile or drone facility in Britain, France or Germany could turn the proxy war into something much more direct.

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin says the land Ukraine has lost isn’t really Ukraine’s at all “They are historically Russian lands.” Hard to see the peace talks going smoothly when one side says the land was never the other side’s to begin with. Writer: Daniyal t.co/t0eFnkbBuz

🇻🇪🇶🇦🇺🇸 Venezuela may borrow from Qatar just so it can start borrowing again Venezuela owes the Inter-American Development Bank, Latin America’s big lender, over $2 billion, and the bank cut it off in 2018 over it. With U.S. support, Venezuela is reportedly eyeing a short-term Qatari loan to clear that debt, so the bank can lend again and part of that new money can repay Qatar. The country badly needs cash to fix its blackout-hit power grid, and since the U.S. captured Maduro in January, international lenders have been coming back, with the World Bank alone considering up to $5 billion over 2 years. So basically it’s a loan to pay a loan to get a loan, but for a country that’s been in default for nearly a decade, that might be the only way back in. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇮🇷 Retired Royal Navy Commodore Steve Jermy: Iran’s missile threat is being underestimated. His specifically looks at interception. He says ballistic missiles are already difficult targets, while hypersonic missiles are far harder to stop. Then comes the saturation problem. 50 or 100 incoming missiles can overwhelm defenders simply by forcing too many decisions too quickly. Jermy fought under missile attack in the Falklands. His conclusion: The West still has a serious gap in missile defense, and he doesn’t think it gets fixed anytime soon.

🚨 OIL JUST EXPLODED TO $114 A BARREL AFTER FRESH HOUTHI ATTACKS Brent crude has surged 4%, with attacks on Saudi energy infrastructure sending another shock through oil markets. And this is becoming a vicious cycle. Saudi facilities are under attack. Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz remains disrupted. Energy supply routes are increasingly vulnerable. Meanwhile, expensive oil is feeding directly into diesel, transportation, food prices and inflation worldwide. Central banks are now facing a miserable choice: keep interest rates high to fight inflation or ease borrowing costs to protect weakening economies. A few drones hitting critical oil infrastructure can send prices soaring across the planet. And millions of people who have absolutely nothing to do with this war end up paying for it. Source: The Times / Writer: Oliver

🇷🇺🇺🇦🇺🇸 Putin says Russia, Ukraine and the U.S. could soon be back at the same table “We agreed that we are ready to resume our trilateral contacts.” The talks would be about keeping both Ukraine and Russia secure once peace deals are actually reached. Planning security for after the peace deal sounds great, they just need the peace deal first. Writer: Daniyal t.co/vExu0gusuL

🇫🇷 WHO DID THIS 🤣 Writer: Sol t.co/UBxeDYdBWN

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Steve Jermy thinks Washington has a basic military problem with Iran: Airpower alone may not be enough, but putting troops on the ground could be even worse. As a former air-defense destroyer commander, he argues Iranian drones and missiles make Gulf staging areas and amphibious forces dangerously vulnerable. And if the U.S. hits Iran’s energy infrastructure, he expects retaliation against Gulf infrastructure, Israel and American bases. His estimate for American success? “No better than 10%.”

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin says Russia can agree to a Ukraine deal, and he’s fine if it doesn’t happen “If someone wants otherwise, fine, it will be otherwise.” Either way, he said, Russia will finish what it started and hit every goal of what Moscow calls its “special military operation.” Russia has agreed to lower-level talks next month, so we’ll soon find out which version of “otherwise” we get. Writer: Daniyal t.co/XfQExT5vti

🇺🇲 Welcome to the GULF OF ’MERICA 💪 The grill is hot, the beer is cold, and Starlink’s satellites can get you the game 🏈 Writer: Marie t.co/mC0SAOl8IK

🇷🇺🇺🇦 Putin is blaming Ukraine for the war, claiming Moscow tried to negotiate a settlement YEARS before Russia's full-scale invasion. He argues that back in 2014, Russia offered to help Kyiv reach an agreement with the separatist southeast, but Ukrainian authorities responded with artillery and aircraft against civilians. “They practically unleashed a war.” Putin also claims Kyiv refused to compromise under the Minsk agreements, insisting Russia had pushed for negotiations from the beginning. Writer: Sol t.co/Vj5SiaLCXB

🇸🇦🇾🇪 The IMF says Houthi attacks are barely denting Saudi Arabia’s economy so far Iran’s blockade of Hormuz and the Houthis’ own sea blockade have squeezed Saudi oil exports, but ships are still getting through. The IMF’s Middle East chief says strong spending at home and a big public sector are keeping the damage “limited.” The whole region is still feeling it. Every Gulf country except Oman, Saudi Arabia included, is producing less oil and gas this year, and the region’s economy is set to shrink by 4.8%. The IMF does expect a big bounce back of around 9% next year, but with U.S.-Iran talks stuck, there’s still a lot that could go wrong. With Houthi strikes still hitting places like Riyadh’s airport this month, how long “limited” stays limited is the real question. Source: AFP / Writer: Daniyal