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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump could be walking into an escalation trap with Iran that gets more dangerous after the midterms.
I spoke with Professor Robert Pape, and this was one of our more unsettling conversations.
He believes Trump is caught in an escalation trap. Every attempt to reverse a strategic setback creates pressure to take an even bigger gamble.
Pape compared it to Lyndon Johnson in Vietnam. A president who keeps doubling down because admitting defeat carries an enormous political cost.
And he thinks the danger could actually increase after the November 3 midterms.
We also discussed reports of a possible three-day US air campaign against Iran.
Pape warned that the original three-day bombing concept against Saddam Hussein expanded into a 43-day campaign. He fears something similar could happen again, with Gulf countries paying a terrible price.
But the part that really stayed with me was his warning about civilian aviation.
He believes another round of fighting could put commercial aircraft and airports at risk, potentially leaving people with no safe way to evacuate.
That's particularly concerning to me because I'm in the region.
I asked him how bad this could get. He thinks a global recession by April is a real possibility.
None of this is inevitable. But Pape's larger point is that the political pressure driving escalation may be growing faster than anyone's ability to control what happens next.
@ProfessorPape
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