Mario Nawfal

🚨🇺🇸 House Republicans have outraised Democrats $250 million to $249 million this cycle... while losing the generic ballot by 12 points The NRCC enters the home stretch with $61 million in the bank against the DCCC's $55.7 million, after Democrats beat them by $84 million in 2024 and $74 million in 2022. September alone brought in $28.5 million for the GOP, though $14 million of that was a transfer from the RNC, and Speaker Johnson has personally raised over $220 million since taking the gavel. So the party with the money is the party at 31% presidential approval, and the party that's broke by comparison leads 47 to 35 on the ballot. Cash buys ads in the dozen districts that decide the House, which is the one thing that can keep a 218-214 majority from turning into a 20-seat loss. The question for the next two weeks is whether $61 million can out-shout a $6 gallon of gas in the suburbs of Pennsylvania, Arizona and New York, or whether the ad buys end up being the most expensive concession speeches in history. Source: Axios / Writer: Daniel

Streamer tosses a girl into the pool as she struggles and repeatedly tells him no, only for him to react to her getting out of the pool by saying this to the camera guy: "That was hot" This generation is cooked. Writer: Daniel t.co/jAm6FgOY3S

🇬🇧🇮🇷 Two men rearrested for "assisting a foreign intelligence service" in the plot against the US bomber base at RAF Fairford... and the B-1s still haven't come back A 24-year-old Briton and a 25-year-old British-Iranian dual national now face the National Security Act charge that Britain reserves for spies, out of seven men picked up since late September, and police say the evidence still points to Iran's state. The prime minister already said the plot was "almost certainly" IRGC-directed; this is the first time the case has moved from terrorism to espionage on paper. The plot was apparently blown by a woman who called 999 about three vans and ten masked men blocking her driveway, which the defense secretary thanked her for on TV. Days later every American long-range bomber left Fairford over an unspecified threat and Trump said the US "moved them around a little bit." Three weeks on, none have returned. The next question is whether they go back before the post-midterm strike window, or whether they fly it from somewhere else. Source: CNN / Writer: Daniel

🇾🇪 NEW SATELLITE IMAGES show damage to the unloading line at Yemen’s Ras Isa terminal. Images from around October 18 appear to match the timing of Saudi strikes on Houthi fuel sites along the Red Sea coast. Ras Isa has already suffered major damage from earlier U.S. and Israeli raids. Damage to the tanker connection could further disrupt oil flows as fuel remains scarce for civilians and fighters. In a war targeting energy infrastructure, one damaged link can disrupt the entire supply chain. Writer: Lucas t.co/mAdlTtPM0R

🇺🇸 The CIA quietly BOUGHT thousands of Steve Jobs’ NeXT computers, helping keep his struggling company alive. Journalist Sharon Weinberger later uncovered that the agency bought customized machines for spy satellite analysis, giving NeXT crucial sales when few others were buying. That contract bought Jobs time to prove NeXT could work and helped pave the way back to Apple. Writer: Lucas t.co/5EUp4p0ZSP

🚨🇦🇱 Protesters in Tirana SMASHED the chairs that Albanese PM Rama set out as an invitation to talk 👀 He arranged empty seats outside parliament and said anyone who wanted dialogue without violence was welcome. Demonstrators showed up and broke the chairs instead. The government got the message clear as water 💀 Source: DWNews YT / Writer: Lucas

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Beijing threatens "necessary measures" after the US sanctions five Chinese firms built around a Google engineer who stole AI secrets and got 12 months Linwei Ding was convicted in January of taking Google's AI trade secrets while secretly working for two Chinese companies, then went home and founded Zhisuan, pitching that he could copy Google's supercomputing setup. The State Department hit Zhisuan, the incubator MiraclePlus that funded it for equity, and three affiliates, the first time the trade-secret sanctions authority has been aimed at a Chinese startup ecosystem rather than a state firm. Beijing's response is that its AI progress comes from "long-term cultivation" and "independent innovation" and has "nothing to do" with theft, which is a bold position to take about a company founded by a man a US jury convicted of exactly that. The judge tossed the espionage counts and gave him a year; the DOJ is appealing. To be honest, just 12 months for walking out of Google with the blueprints is the part that should bother everyone more than Beijing’s statement... Source: AP, WaPo / Writer: Daniel, Lucas

🚨🇺🇸 Vivek owns the $4 million ad in which Amy Acton's estranged mother calls her a liar... the same mother Acton says sided with the stepfather who sexually abused her at 12 Asked on camera whether the spot was his, Vivek claimed it and said the people who "know her best," from her former boss to the Ohio State Medical Association, are telling voters to pick him, and her mother fits "a pattern." His campaign says it tested well with persuadables. Acton says she was abused by her mother's husband from 10 to 12, her mother "did nothing to protect me," she and her brother were taken out of that home by the state, and she hasn't seen the woman since. Her brother called the ad "disgusting." Marist has Acton up 50 to 43, and Vance campaigns with Vivek in Cincinnati tomorrow. Source: Axios / Writer: Daniel t.co/BcoQOjbV0W

🇦🇱 Albania’s PM office placed RED VELVET CHAIRS labeled “DIALOGUE” in Tirana’s MAIN SQAURE It’s a PR stunt with no substance. And seriously, red velvet? Way to connect with the people… Writer: Marie t.co/ydbM644GAv

🇮🇱🇸🇾 Israeli fighter jets reportedly flew over Syria on the route toward Iran for "military drills"... a day after Netanyahu told Trump they have "a job to finish" Damascus already had its guard up: a senior Syrian official told the Jerusalem Post this week that Israeli reconnaissance over the south has spiked and that Israel is arming Druze militias in Sweida, a claim Israel hasn't addressed. A week before Israelis vote, the air corridor to Iran got a dress rehearsal. Source: Fox News / JPost / Writer: Daniel t.co/SdFbSDulYw

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇷 The Pentagon is deciding which bombed-out Middle East bases are worth rebuilding and handing the list to the GOLDEN DOME team to pick which ones get defended first... A senior defense official told reporters today that CENTCOM is assessing installations "from an installation perspective" and weighing future posture against the bill, which is the first on-record admission that some bases may not come back. The known list: the air operations center at Al Udeid knocked out, installations in Saudi Arabia and Jordan hit, and the Fifth Fleet's home in Bahrain so wrecked the Navy's top admiral said it won't be used "anytime soon." Hegseth's $37.5 billion war estimate to Congress left base repairs out entirely, and Senate Armed Services asked this week for the full number. The official didn't have one. What he did have was a new doctrine: the two oceans no longer protect the homeland, "the installation is the weapon system," and the Golden Dome team is now ranking which bases get defended first. Theoretically, the strike plan being drawn up for after the midterms would launch from exactly this footprint. The last round left the Navy without a headquarters in the Gulf and the Air Force running the air war from somewhere other than Qatar, and the Pentagon is openly asking whether it even wants those bases back before it decides to go again. Iran might not necessarily be winning the oil war... but it did make every American base in the region a line item somebody has to defend and justify in a budget hearing. Source: Breaking Defense, CBS / Writer: Daniel

🇺🇸🇰🇵 North Korea keeps firing missiles while Trump talks about meeting Kim, and some call it WEAKNESS. Marco Rubio’s point earlier was simple: grown-up foreign policy means nuclear powers still have to talk. You can’t reduce the risk of conflict by refusing to pick up the phone. The higher missile test count doesn’t prove diplomacy failed. North Korea is advancing its weapons programs and strengthening ties with Russia and China. Talking still doesn’t hand anyone a free pass, but keeps worst options off the table while the rest gets sorted. Source: CSIS / Writer: Lucas

🇦🇱 WAIT, WHAT?! A student in Tirana, Albania, CLIMBED a really high lamppost to take down police cameras 😳 Most people would never even think about going that high just to mess with a camera, but there they are. Writer: Lucas t.co/E8lVpCJirH

🇯🇵🇨🇳🇷🇺 Japan’s jets are flying almost daily as China and Russia keep testing its air defenses. From April to September, Japan scrambled fighters 442 times, up 177 from last year. About 2/3 involved Chinese aircraft, with the rest linked to Russian flights. The pattern forces Tokyo to keep interceptors on alert as tensions rise around Okinawa and the Ryukyu Islands. In the western Pacific, the contest is about who shows up in the sky every day. Japan is basically running a permanent air watch just to keep the status quo from shifting under it. Source: Japan Joint Staff Office / Writer: Lucas

🚨🇮🇷🇺🇸 The IRGC claims a third tanker in 24 hours hit a mine and exploded on the American-protected route past Oman... a route Trump claims has been cleared of mines Tehran's story is that its navy seeded mines at the "illegal crossing point" along the Omani coast, where ships run dark under US air cover, and that three tankers burned on them Tuesday, the latest one carrying 2 million barrels with its tracking off. Nothing is confirmed from the US side, no owner has stepped forward and UKMTO hasn't logged three strikes. When two Emirati ships sank last week on what the IRGC called mines, US officials said there was no evidence of mines and the ships were hit by Iranian projectiles. Tehran likes "mine" because it sounds like a blockade; a drone or a rocket sounds like what it is, a guerrilla war against a corridor it can't close. For context, Kpler’s numbers from this morning say the corridor moved 14 million barrels a day last week, about 82% of prewar... and once you add the Saudi and Emirati pipelines routing around the strait, the Gulf as a whole is exporting more oil than it did before the war. Source: CBS, CENTCOM, Al Jazeera / Writer: Daniel

🇮🇷🇸🇦 Iran is getting NO ANSWERS from the Saudis or Houthis about its offer to BROKER PEACE TALKS. Tehran proposed facilitating mediation as Houthi attacks on the Saudis intensified earlier this month. Iran’s foreign minister warned that foreign military intervention would make matters worse, a veiled comment likely amid at Egypt’s offer to support Saudi security. How about Iran gets its OWN diplomacy in order before offering it to others? Source: Reuters / Writer: Marie

🚨🇦🇱🇹🇷 The Albanian government used a Turkish WATER CANNON to hit the protests The protests have already stretched into a full week of running battles in the capital. Sending outside gear into the mix shows how stretched the response has become. Writer: Lucas t.co/MPGL2qFxhB

🇮🇱 🇸🇾 🇹🇷 Daily news recap: Israeli helicopters are reportedly flying weapons and radar gear into Syria’s Druze heartland. Damascus has accused Israel of arming Druze militias in Sweida, and Syria now sits squeezed between Turkish weapons flowing in from the north and Israeli weapons coming up from the south: “Israel’s arming the Druze.” Syria’s new government is getting carved up by its neighbors before it ever gets the chance to stand on its own. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇸 Another Falcon 9 LIFTS OFF carrying SpaceX’s disk-shaped Starfall lab into orbit in Florida 🔥 The roughly 4,600-pound capsule went up today on a rideshare mission, built so researchers can do work in zero gravity and bring stuff back down. Putting both the tech and the stock into more people’s hands is a pretty direct way to make space feel less distant. Writer: Lucas t.co/X0w5h93lZg

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Netanyahu could derail his own election by restarting the Iran war... and Trump's endorsement now ties the midterms to whatever Bibi does next An American president openly endorsing a sitting Israeli prime minister a week before his vote breaks a long-standing norm, and the reason is simple: Washington has to work with whoever wins. Eli Clifton of the Quincy Institute, author of Israel's Lobby, says the endorsement ties Trump's political fate to Netanyahu's, and a trailing prime minister with a war to restart has an easy way out of October 27: "From a practical matter, I don't see how you can have elections if you have air raid sirens going off and people in bomb shelters." Iran would hit Gulf energy and targets inside Israel, and Eli says Dimona is on the table if Israel goes nuclear, and possibly if Iran's own nuclear sites are hit again. The timing is before October 27, before November 3, or shortly after... so the next two weeks decide whether this war restarts on Israel's election calendar or America's. @EliClifton @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇦🇷🇺 A woman in Kyiv breaks down watching a MAN BURN inside his car after a Russian drone hit The strike landed near the highway outside the city this morning and set several vehicles on fire while people were driving. 3 are confirmed dead, and others are hurt. Sadly, the battlefield has been the regular cities for several months. Writer: Lucas t.co/xOAa72ZFQb

🚨🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Iran’s blockade of Hormuz is failing: the Gulf is pumping out MORE oil than before the war Kpler's numbers for the week through Oct. 18: 24 million barrels a day out of the region against 23.3 million prewar, and Hormuz itself back to 82% of normal even though October has seen roughly 30 ship attacks, a fifth of the war's total. Saudi and Emirati pipelines now carry 40% of the Gulf's non-Iranian crude around the strait, up from 17% in February. Iran's own exports stay bottled up by the US blockade. The system doing it is ugly and EXPENSIVE. Tankers reportedly load inside the Gulf with their trackers off, dash through under American air cover along the Omani coast, hand the cargo to another ship in the Gulf of Oman and go back in for more. Crews get three times their monthly pay or a $25,000 bonus for one round trip, a supertanker run to China costs a record $37 a barrel in freight, war insurance has jumped from under 3% to 10% of hull value, and one ship that took an RPG through its water tank last week was carrying 2 million barrels of Iraqi crude at the time. Credit where it's due: CENTCOM said last week that the US controls Hormuz and Tehran's "closed" claims are lies, and the volume data backs Washington. Iran can still make the trip dangerous and the whole world is paying for it at $108 Brent, which is why gas is $6 and Trump is at 31%. But the leverage Tehran built in April, the actual shortage of crude, appears to be gone. Source: WSJ / Kpler / Writer: Daniel

🇪🇸 We don’t deserve dogs! But we are so blessed that they choose to love us unconditionally! Writer: Jamie t.co/xLclYet14O

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 One Iranian missile hitting a US warship could mean hundreds of casualties a week before the midterms Matt Bracken says a strike wouldn't even need to sink the ship, and the political fallout would land squarely on the White House: "If there are hundreds or more casualties a week before our midterm election, I think it's going to be blowback against Trump and the Republicans." Is anyone in Washington willing to roll those dice with November 3 this close? @Matt_Bracken48

🇺🇸 Trump has now delivered $1B in military settlements to Camp Lejeune families affected by TOXIC WATER The payouts cover illnesses linked to decades of contaminated drinking water at the base, with the administration speeding up approvals after years of delays. Trump also pledged to push through the remaining legitimate claims if Republicans hold both chambers. After years of families dealing with the fallout, it’s good to see real help finally reaching them. Writer: Lucas t.co/aEVscCkUNW

🇮🇹 Bologna’s brightly dressed woman BLOWN AWAY by a WATER CANNON Watch it in slow-motion. Doesn't even look like she was rioting 😂 Writer: Marie t.co/hYvt6kNMFy

🔥🇺🇸 The whole Sprouse twins’ story is INSANE. Their former manager, Joshua Werkman, is currently on trial for child abuse in Pennsylvania, where he’s been working as an EMT and youth sports volunteer. I guess they didn’t care that he was convicted in 2008 of misdemeanor child molestation. Dylan Sprouse was apparently the victim of an alleged recent break-in. That has folks wondering whether it was an effort to keep them quiet. Source: @entylawyer / Writer: Jamie

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 Twenty Iranian missiles arriving in the same minute could overwhelm the defenses around a US carrier. Matt Bracken says the big unknown is terminal guidance, whether Iran's missiles can find a moving ship in the final seconds of flight, and nobody outside Tehran can say for sure: "If 20 missiles come in in one minute, it's a completely different situation. And you could potentially overwhelm the defenses." If Iran has cracked that problem and the Pentagon is betting it hasn't, every plan built around carrier safety is built on sand. @matt_bracken48

🇫🇷 France’s riots started out as student protests that unraveled into CRIMINAL OPPORTUNISM. ~70% of the 2,500 people arrested during the country's Oct. 17–18 civil unrest were adults. The cause was COMPLETELY lost in the chaos. Writer: Marie t.co/ME2CJFIIOC