Mario Nawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Tehran reportedly refused a "fireworks" strike on Pickaxe Mountain with no retaliation attached... which means the next American bomb may not come with a script The claim comes from IRIB, Iran's state broadcaster, and no Western outlet has confirmed it: Washington asked Tehran to sit still while the US hit the Pickaxe Mountain enrichment site as a symbolic, one-off strike, and Tehran said no while warning it could go after approaching carrier groups. Take that with the skepticism Iranian state media has earned. What is confirmed is the shape of the plan. CNN reported last week that the Pentagon's options include dropping the 21,600-pound MOAB on energy and nuclear sites including Pickaxe, that planners concede it can't punch through the granite, and that at least some inside the building call it a "fireworks show" meant as an off-ramp. Trump then went on Newsmax to remind everyone the MOAB "is not nuclear," without denying it's on the table. Put those two pieces together and the IRIB story stops sounding absurd. A strike that is designed to look big and change nothing only works if the other side agrees to play along, and every exchange since June has followed that pattern: a limited US hit, a measured Iranian answer, both capitals claiming a win. Iran has rebuilt its air defenses, it just claimed its 54th Reaper, it's expanding tanker attacks past the strait and its officials told Reuters the goal is pressure through the midterms. A regime that believes it's winning the slow war has no reason to absorb a free punch. That leaves Washington with the worst version of the choice. Short wars stay short because both sides want them to, and right now only one side does. Source: IRIB / CNN / Newsmax / Writer: Daniel

🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇹🇷 No country in the Middle East is strong enough to impose order... and no outside power wants the job. Aaron David Miller says the region is stuck in a cycle where one conflict rolls straight into the next, with no clean exit anywhere: "I see no regional hegemon, no single state capable of imposing or enforcing its policies or its will." The three non Arab powers, Iran, Israel and Turkey, are the ones to watch while everyone else gets ground down. @aarondmiller2

🚨🇺🇸🇻🇪 Halliburton, Baker Hughes, SLB and Weatherford are hiring in Venezuela again as the first American rigs roll back in nine months after Maduro was taken The job boards tell the story: SLB has 35 openings in Anaco, Maturin and Caracas, Weatherford has at least 20 after pulling out in 2019, Baker Hughes is staffing up in Maracaibo and Halliburton says it's building its talent pool. Chevron is about to switch on four rigs, Patterson-UTI is shipping parts for ten more and the CEO's verdict was "it'll be fine for Venezuela." This is exactly what the January operation was for. The largest oil reserves on earth sit 1,400 miles from Houston, the companies rebuilding them are American, and every barrel that comes out of the Orinoco is one less the US needs from the Gulf. Reality creeps in as you look at the pace though. Two rigs are running in the whole country today, the refineries are wrecks, and the forecast is only 1.5 million barrels a day by late 2027 from 1.2 million now. Venezuela won't lower gas prices before the midterms, but it's the one energy bet Washington made this year that's actually drilling. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniel

☠️🇺🇲 Another possessed person on the NYC subway. At least he’s not asking for money…yet. Source: Raps & Hustles (YT) / Writer: Marie t.co/x0L6P4EEGa

🇺🇸 Seized ballot boxes and uncertified winners are midterm scenarios retired federal judges can no longer rule out. Aaron David Miller says the people he trusts most, retired federal judges and lawyers, can't dismiss a fight over certifying newly elected Democrats, with red state governors under pressure to go along: "This country is going to be thrown into a constitutional crisis, which carries the real prospects of dysfunction and violence." Two weeks out from November 3, the real test is whether the guardrails hold. @aarondmiller2

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 The midterms may be the only thing holding back a US strike on Iran right now. Aaron David Miller, who spent decades as a State Department Middle East negotiator, says every diplomatic off ramp is failing, and a strike now would hand voters a hot war days before Election Day. The talks themselves have hit a wall: "The gaps on the core issues are unbridgeable." With neither side hurting enough to back down, November 4 could be the day the gloves come off. @aarondmiller2

🚨🇮🇱 ISRAELI POLICE ARREST 10 SETTLER SUSPECTS IN PRE-DAWN RAIDS “Operation Olive Leaf” was launched after reported attacks by settlers across the West Bank during the olive harvest that targeted Palestinians, a WaPo photojournalist, and European diplomats. Accountability for settler violence remains rare; one Israeli rights group said 93.6% of the police investigations it monitored over ~20 years ended without an indictment. Netanyahu warned of a possible “smear campaign,” while his challenger Gadi Eisenkot called the attacks “Jewish terror.” Take a look at the video and judge for yourself... Source: DW News (YT), Reuters / Writer: Marie

🚨🇺🇸 U.S. STRATEGIC OIL RESERVE AT LOWEST LEVEL SINCE 1982 America’s emergency crude inventories reportedly DROPPED to 282.7 MILLION BARRELS, the lowest since Oct. 1982. The decline comes as the White House moves ahead with a 172-MILLION-BARREL-RELEASE to help offset oil market disruptions linked to the Iran war. Private oil companies borrowing crude from the reserve are required to return it to the DoE with additional barrels as a premium. If the emergency tank IS drained before it can be replenished, America is SCREWED if another crisis hits. Source: Reuters, U.S. Energy Info. Admin., DoE / Writer: Marie

🚨🇺🇸 Trump gave AOC the nicest compliment a Democrat has gotten from him in years “I like AOC better, you know, she’s doing her thing.” AOC’s 2028 team is definitely not putting it in a campaign ad😅 Writer: Daniel t.co/ofjHY4OD26

🇮🇷 🇺🇸 The Iran war has been spreading across the map since day one, and its separate fronts could soon bleed into each other. Trita Parsi says nothing is left to keep these battlefields apart, and the spread doesn't need anyone to plan it: "It's important to understand that this is not necessarily because there is a calculation to go in that direction, but because the situation gets out of control." Nobody has to choose a regional war for one to happen, and right now nobody is doing much to stop it. @tparsi

🇸🇦 🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia got through the Iran war mostly intact... until the Houthis hit Riyadh's airport. Trita Parsi says that strike shoved Riyadh into a fight it can't finish cleanly, and the course it's on now only makes things worse: "It's not only not realistic, it's dangerous. It's undermining Saudi Arabia's own interest and security." With the Houthis going nowhere, how long before Riyadh has to pick between a deal it hates and a war it can't win? @tparsi

PsyopAnime nails it with a parody of the “I’m as mad as hell” speech from the 1976 film “Network.” Crime, the economy, public institutions… Things are going downhill, but after becoming passive and disconnected, the first step is to get angry and stop putting up with it. A call to action is made, and the people cry out: “I’M MAD AS HELL! And I’m NOT going to take it anymore!” Are you mad as hell yet? @grok Writer: Marie t.co/90yFabEx5o

🇯🇵🇺🇸 Japan is going where no one has gone before: a moon of Mars... and back again with souvenirs JAXA’s $350 million mission, with $87 million chipped in by NASA, launched Tuesday on a five-year round trip to Phobos, a 17-mile space potato that might be a captured asteroid or a chunk blasted off Mars itself. Russia tried the same thing in 2011 and never left Earth orbit. Japan’s Hayabusa probes already brought asteroid dust home twice, so the country with the thinnest headlines in space is about to answer a question NASA has been asking since the 1970s. Source: WSJ / Writer: Daniel

🇮🇷 🇮🇱 🇺🇸 A third round of the Iran war could go after desalination plants and undersea internet cables from day one. Trita Parsi, executive vice president of the Quincy Institute, says round two ended up looking just like round one, and round three is shaping up the same way, except Israel is now pushing to hit energy sites, water plants and the cables under the Gulf right out of the gate. Those threats tend to get carried out: "When it comes to these military threats, they've acted on most of them, to the best of my knowledge." Those cables run through the whole Gulf, so cutting them would knock Iran's neighbors offline right alongside Iran. @tparsi

🇫🇷 Another piece of France's architectural heritage has been left in RUINS Devastating aerial footage shows the aftermath of a massive fire at Limoges City Hall, with its roof destroyed, wooden beams charred, and debris scattered throughout the historic building. The elegant stone facade is still standing, but the destruction behind it is heartbreaking 💔 Writer: Sol t.co/b7gKCB0Ryb

🇺🇸 How does a brilliant computer scientist with a background in NASA research end up leading a CULT? Andy Ngo tells Tucker the bizarre story of Jack LaSota, known as “Ziz,” who became the leader of the Zizian group. LaSota was a magna cum laude graduate who entered a prestigious engineering program before dropping out and moving to Silicon Valley. There, he immersed himself in rationalism and effective altruism, communities filled with highly educated tech workers, AI researchers, and people who had worked at places like NASA and Google. Ngo describes a world where people spent HOURS debating mathematical models for morality and even the suffering of BILLIONS OF SHRIMP. And somewhere along the way, LaSota began developing his own radical beliefs and recruiting followers. Source: @TCNetwork / Writer: Sol

🚨🇺🇸 15 days out, here's what actually changes depending on who wins on November 3... and why the Senate matters FAR more than the House... Democrats are expected to take the House, which buys them subpoenas and investigations but almost no law, because Senate Republicans and Trump's veto stop everything else. A 50-50 Senate changes nothing either, since Vance breaks ties and Fetterman becomes the most important man in Washington. The Senate flip is the real main event. Even a two-seat Democratic majority ends Trump's judicial pipeline, likely freezes any Supreme Court vacancy until 2028 and takes the war-powers vote on Iran off Republican leadership's desk, which is why analysts expect a confirmation stampede in the lame duck if the map tips. At four seats or more, Democrats can force Trump to veto bills on tariffs, prices and the war every week until the next election. Reuters' generic ballot today is 47 to 35, Trump sits at 31%, and the Michigan, Alaska, Texas and Kansas Senate races all show Democrats ahead or tied. The House was never really the question this cycle. Whether a 53-47 Senate survives a $6 gallon of gas is, and the answer decides if the last two years of this presidency are governed by veto pen or by executive order alone. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniel

🇺🇸 🇨🇳 Daily news recap: The US Army wants to show off Typhon missiles near China... and they'd be sitting ducks off the Bashi Strait. The Army's top commander in the Pacific told the Financial Times that putting more American firepower on display will make Beijing think twice, but those launchers sit well inside China's missile umbrella, and Washington doesn't have many to spare: "It's like putting a kick me sign on our forces." Pull them back to the second island chain, cut a deal that buys a decade, and rebuild before picking this fight. @WeTheBrandon

🇱🇧🇮🇱 A 5,000-YEAR-OLD CITY is being torn apart by war, and its residents are left standing in the ruins of their own lives. A new report by Jeremy Loffredo shows the devastation in Tyre, Lebanon, following Israeli strikes. One rescuer breaks down in tears as he recalls the people and families who lived there. Another resident describes an attack that left 28 to 29 people dead and four missing. Ibrahim Fares walks through what remains of his café, pointing to where the pool table, televisions, and PlayStation once stood. And the destruction has reportedly reached archaeological sites in Tyre, a UNESCO WORLD HERITAGE CITY, with ancient walls damaged and structures displaced by the force of the blasts. Yet amid the rubble, residents are already talking about rebuilding their homes and businesses. Source: @BergerPosts / Writer: Sol

🇺🇸🇮🇱 Hegseth confirms the secret Middle East trip and calls it a "historic mission"... but won't say he was in Israel with Netanyahu The confirmation came in one post with no location, no itinerary and no mention of Netanyahu. Axios reported earlier that the meeting happened at Ovda air base in the Negev, where US tankers and fighters have been staged for the Iran war, eight days before Israelis vote on October 27. The Pentagon won't confirm the Netanyahu meeting, the Israelis won't comment, and the war secretary just told every troop in CENTCOM they're part of something history will remember. Make of that what you will. Source: Axios / Writer: Daniel

🇫🇷 A MEME IS BORN 🔥 Imagine sipping wine and smoking cigarettes while Paris burns in the background. Unrushed. Unburdened. Unbothered. C’est la vie! 😂 Writer: Marie t.co/IolpW2Y32u

🇮🇱 🇺🇸 Daily news recap: Right wing parties across the West won't criticize Israel's war in Gaza, and the backlash is building. The argument here is that they're afraid of the political price, and that Netanyahu's government is doing more damage to Jews around the world than any of its critics ever could: "Netanyahu's Israel has done more to further the cause of antisemitism than anything that any right wing or, you know, zealot or left wing hater could have done." Anyone serious about fighting antisemitism has to be willing to press Netanyahu's government on Gaza. @WeTheBrandon

🇺🇲 WOWZA 😍🔥 These Victoria’s Secret models have really nice…shoes!! Source: VS (YT) / Writer: Marie t.co/Ql37TIGiyn

🚨🇰🇵 Kim Jong Un PROOF-OF-LIFE or a BODY DOUBLE? Unverified claims that the North Korean dictator died of a brain hemorrhage made their rounds and gained traction on social media. So, what does any repressive, isolated, authoritarian state do when its leadership is put into question? Release photos of the Dear Leader and his daughter inspecting children’s shoes VERY CLOSELY. Maybe he has tiny feet? Source: NYP / Writer: Marie t.co/rNyx1jcNbB

🇮🇷🇺🇸 IRGC claims it shot a US MQ-9 Reaper out of the sky over the Strait of Hormuz... and says it's the 54th one The IRGC claims its air defenses hit the drone with missile fire and that it fell into the Gulf. The Washington Post's own count is at least 45 Reapers lost since February, and that includes crashes, friendly fire and losses nowhere near Iran. But even the lower number is a $1.3 billion hole in the drone fleet that flies the strait as the eyes for every tanker escort, and Iran told Bloomberg last week its rebuilt air defenses are at a "much higher level" than during the spring fighting. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Daniel

🇺🇸 🇮🇷 🇷🇺 Daily news recap: Rubio warns a nuclear Iran would control the Strait of Hormuz for good... but Iran didn't have a nuke before this war started. Once Tehran has a bomb, nobody would dare try to break its grip on the strait, and Rubio isn’t wrong about that. Pushing Iran into a corner now risks creating the very bomb Washington wants to stop, while Lavrov’s trip to Tehran looks like nothing more than a pulse check: “I think we’re going to have to learn to live with Iran as it is and not as we want it to be.” Keep squeezing without talking, and a bomb becomes Tehran’s only insurance policy. @WeTheBrandon

🚨🇺🇸 The feds reportedly have Ilhan Omar’s DNA, and they may use it to test whether the man she married was really her BROTHER Sources say agents walked out of her DC home with her passport, phone and laptops last week, and the warrant reportedly traces back to family texts on her sister’s seized phone. Now Rep. James Comer is pointing at her financial disclosures and a winery tied to her husband’s business that’s been accused of selling investors empty barrels. Omar calls it a political hit job as Prosecutors in Minnesota and DC are both digging. To be clear, a sitting member of Congress has NEVER been denaturalized in American history. Whatever the truth is... if DNA comes back a match, no amount of spin saves her seat or her citizenship. Source: Fox News, New York Post / Writer: Daniel t.co/O9lG0zSbBS

🇧🇷 My brother while I was telling my mom that he hit me while she was gone Writer: Sol t.co/23pBWECPvD

🚨🇺🇸 Trump says the Democrats are owned by big insurance, and he wants to cut the companies out of health care entirely “We will pass a truly great health care plan that will stop all payments to big insurance companies, which own the Democrat Party. And we will give the money directly to you, the people, so you can buy your own health care and have lots of money left over. Better health care, lots of money.” He’s already pushed drug prices down through his TrumpRx deals with Big Pharma and started sending $500 refund checks to Obamacare customers… if he can do the same with premiums before November, insurance companies are about to have a very bad midterm. Source: Reuters / Writer: Marie, Daniel t.co/AYaPqOcDSY

🚨🇺🇸🇮🇱 Michigan Democratic Senate nominee, Abdul El-Sayed, compares Israel to a friend who mooches your money and drags your kid into fights Hust a year ago this response was a career-ender in either party: "If your kid has a friend who keeps bumming off their money, talks about them behind their back, and gets them into fights with other friends, what would you tell your kid?" Supporters of the alliance will predictably counter that American aid buys missile defense, intelligence and a partner in a dangerous region. The question for voters isn’t whether El-Sayed is right about Israel, it’s how many of them already agree with him and simply hadn’t heard a candidate say it. The latest polling says plenty do: El-Sayed leads Republican Mike Rogers 48% to 46% in the most recent InsiderAdvantage survey of likely voters, and he has led in every public poll this month. Writer: Daniel t.co/JLtxy4yPke