Mario Nawfal

🇺🇸 DIESEL FUTURES ARE SURGING And the supply crisis behind them could be even more troubling than $110 oil. New York Harbor diesel futures have jumped above $4.72 a gallon. But this isn't simply crude oil getting more expensive. The world is running short of refined diesel. Ukrainian strikes have damaged Russian refineries, disruptions around the Strait of Hormuz have restricted shipments, and limited refining capacity is making it harder to replace lost supplies. American inventories are also shrinking. The latest EIA figures show U.S. distillate stocks falling by 2.5 million barrels in a single week, leaving supplies 12% below last year's levels. East Coast inventories are down more than 22%. And winter is approaching, when diesel must also compete with heating oil for supply. That's why this matters far beyond energy markets. Oil makes headlines. But a diesel shortage can push costs through the entire economy, even if crude prices stop rising. Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 FIRST PHOTO emerges of the 16-YEAR-OLD suspect behind the DEADLY OREGON ELEMENTARY SCHOOL SHOOTING John J. Griffin II has been identified by law enforcement sources as the gunman who killed three children, aged 5, 8 and 11, and a teacher at Silver Rail Elementary School in Bend. The teenager reportedly used a shotgun purchased by his mother to force his way through locked school doors. Two others were critically injured. Griffin was ultimately shot and killed by an armed civilian who intervened during the attack. Investigators are still trying to establish his motive. Source: NY Post / Writer: Oliver

🇨🇳 China is moving to RESTRICT exports of its biggest AI models and chip designs. The draft covers 23 AI technologies, including large language models, agents, chip designs, and computing clusters. It would restrict model weights and source code above certain thresholds, including models with at least 2 trillion parameters trained on important data. Public open-source tech and API access would be exempt. Beijing says the move is about safety and control. As Chinese labs rapidly close the AI gap, the rules could make exporting the biggest models much harder. Source: Bloomberg / Writer: Lucas

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may want one final strike on Iran, but Israel could have very different plans. Brandon Weichert believes Israel is preparing a much broader campaign against Iranian infrastructure, potentially including energy and water facilities. That could make a limited American operation impossible to contain. Iran would have its own response, meaning a short U.S. strike could become the opening move of a much larger war regardless of what Trump originally intended. There is also a serious question about America’s remaining military capabilities. A CSIS analysis discussed by Weichert suggests the Pentagon may have very few of its most powerful bunker-busting bombs left. That matters because Trump is reportedly considering the MOAB, a massive conventional bomb that is not designed to destroy facilities buried deep beneath mountains. Brandon suspects Washington may be choosing weapons based on what remains available rather than what would actually accomplish its objectives. There are also unconfirmed reports of possible Houthi preparations for ground operations against Saudi Arabia. The bigger problem is the number of actors who could shape what happens next. Trump may want to strike Iran and leave. Israel may want to continue. Iran may decide retaliation is necessary. And the Houthis could open another front. The danger isn’t simply that Trump starts another war, but that he starts one he no longer controls. @WeTheBrandon

🇬🇧 A pipe bomb EXPLODED through the letterbox of a Belfast home in Northern Ireland, but a mother and her children escaped unharmed. Police say the device was pushed through the door early this morning in the Stanhope Street area and caused damage to the entrance and hallway. Neighbors were evacuated as bomb experts examined the scene. The mother says she has no idea why her house was hit and believes the attackers got the wrong address. Thank GOD she and her baby made it on time. Source: RTE Media / Writer: Lucas

The entire Trump admin right now: t.co/kKfGmCpBi9

🇺🇸 Trump says he's in NO RUSH to find a new White House press secretary.... Laura Loomer has apparently decided to make the search a little more interesting. After Katie Zacharia's five-day stint, imagine Trump putting Loomer behind the White House podium. The press briefings might need their own pay-per-view subscription. And something tells me the reporters wouldn't survive the first week. 😂 Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 Trump has apparently decided the White House can survive without a press secretary. After Karoline Leavitt's departure and Katie Zacharia's spectacularly short five-day tenure, Peter Doocy reports that Trump is in “NO RUSH” to find another replacement. There isn't even a shortlist. And apparently, the president thinks things have been running perfectly well without someone behind the briefing room podium. Which is pretty funny when you think about it. Trump already answers half the world's questions himself, usually before anyone has even asked them. Maybe he's starting to wonder why he needs a press secretary at all. Writer: Oliver t.co/f9dg1VDgUo

🇬🇧🇦🇪 BRITAIN SAYS IT'S PROTECTING PRESS FREEDOM. IMI HITS BACK: WHERE IS THE EVIDENCE OF EDITORIAL INTERFERENCE? The Telegraph reports that Ofcom found the UAE-backed takeover posed a serious threat to British press freedom, warning that Abu Dhabi had both the power and incentive to influence editorial coverage. But International Media Investments (IMI) is pushing back hard. The company says Ofcom made no finding of actual editorial interference, ignored its track record and dismissed legally binding safeguards designed to protect the newspaper's independence. IMI argues that the regulator judged the bid on its connections to the UAE rather than its conduct. And there's a much bigger issue here. If a regulator can reject a media acquisition based on the perceived risk of potential future political influence, how much weight should it give to enforceable protections and the investor's actual record? The Telegraph calls the findings damning. IMI says the entire assessment was fundamentally flawed. A strong rebuttal from IMI, worth reading in full. Source: IMI, Ofcom and CMA reports, The Telegraph / Writer: Oliver

🇬🇧 A former UK cheerleader who admitted to KILLING her newborn child will only face 10 YEARS IN PRISON Laken Snelling, 22, pleaded guilty to first-degree manslaughter after her roommates found the baby wrapped in a towel inside a trash bag in her closet. She told the court she was under emotional stress, the birth came unexpectedly, and instead of helping him, she ended his life by choking him. "Stress" is not a defense for choking and putting a baby in a trash bag. WHO SAYS THAT? Writer: Lucas t.co/9S3KgB4flH

Peter Kuznick: the most dangerous shift in nuclear strategy is that some planners no longer see nuclear war as something that must never happen. They think it can be won. Kuznick points to a school of U.S. strategists who believe advances in AI, sonar and surveillance could make a successful preemptive strike against Russian and Chinese nuclear forces possible. And he says similar escalation pressures now exist across several theaters, from Ukraine to Taiwan. The problem is what happens after the first “limited” nuclear strike. According to Kuznick, Pentagon war games repeatedly fail to contain it. “They never can stop it.” The scenario starts tactical. It ends with full-scale nuclear war.

🇵🇸🇮🇱 How could someone STAND FOR something like this?! Israeli soldiers STOPPED Palestinians who were trying to harvest and bring THEIR OWN FOOD back home. This is from Tuqu', southeast of Bethlehem. Farmers go out to pick the crop that feeds their families, and soldiers and settlers are right there blocking the groves, grabbing the bags, and detaining people on the way back. They’re not letting them get their OWN FOOD. Writer: Lucas t.co/3HdtCO2u0A

Peter Kuznick’s biggest fear isn’t just that nuclear arsenals are growing again. But how much power rests with individual leaders. In the U.S. system, there is effectively no formal political veto between a president and an order to launch nuclear weapons. That’s what he finds terrifying. At the same time, all nine nuclear powers are modernizing their arsenals, after decades in which the global stockpile had been shrinking. So the danger is moving in two directions at once: More capable weapons. And enormous decision-making power concentrated in very few hands. For Kuznick, that combination is the real nightmare.

🇺🇸 Wall Street's AI stocks are taking another hit, and investors are getting nervous. Nvidia-backed CoreWeave fell 7.6%, with investors concerned about how much debt it has taken on. Some of its bonds are now yielding over 15%. And it's not just CoreWeave. Other AI cloud companies, Nebius and Iren, dropped more than 5%, while chipmakers Micron and AMD also fell. The big question is whether companies are borrowing and spending too much money on AI. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was down 0.7%, but the S&P 500 barely moved because bank stocks were doing much better. So it's not like investors are pulling out of everything. They're just getting a lot more careful about where they put their money, especially when it comes to AI. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇮🇷 Peter Kuznick thinks the nuclear danger with Iran has changed dramatically from where it stood under the 2015 deal. Under the JCPOA, Iran shipped out most of its enriched uranium, sharply limited enrichment and accepted extensive IAEA inspections. Today, Iran has enriched uranium to 60%. And Kuznick’s point is that once you are at 60%, the jump toward weapons-grade material becomes much easier. “It’s easy to get from 60% to 90%.” He still says there is no clear evidence Iran has actually decided to build a bomb. But after repeated attacks, he thinks the political logic inside Iran may be changing fast. The disturbing question is no longer just whether Iran can build one. It’s whether war is convincing more Iranians that they eventually should.

🇺🇸 Kid Rock says Abdul El-Sayed looking ASSIMILATED is exactly why people should be careful about getting him elected "Guess who else 'assimilated?' The Fort Hood shooter. Guess who else 'assimilated?' The pilots who flew airplanes into our World Trade Center." He warned that this ideology wants a foothold in government, beyond the socialist part, calling El-Sayed a national security threat if he reaches the Senate. You can say Kid Rock is outstated, but the cases are there, and they're hard to ignore. Writer: Lucas t.co/pO0neQcE7d

🇮🇹 Truckers and farmers in southern Italy are out blocking roads, with long lines of trucks stuck around Brindisi and other spots. Diesel’s gone past €2.25 a liter, and a lot of these drivers are saying their fuel bill is jumping by about €1,000 every four days. Farmers are joining in too because fuel’s expensive and they’re barely getting anything for their crops. Writer: Daniyal t.co/A1791znyEi

🇪🇸🇲🇦 Spain’s intelligence agency says Morocco KNEW about the Ceuta INVASION days ahead and still let it happen The CNI told the court Moroccan authorities were fully aware of the social-media calls and the rising numbers before the late-July crossings, yet their border response stayed weak. The report says they put the Throne Festival security first and only stepped up after the flow was already out of control. No more room for the "we didn’t see it coming" line. Source: ABC / Writer: Lucas

🇪🇨 WTF is going on in Ecuador? Someone left a human head in a sack right outside a supermarket in Machala last night. Two guys on a motorcycle apparently just dumped it and rode off. Police are looking for them. And the creepiest part? That wasn’t the only one. People found three heads in different parts of the city the same night. Writer: Daniyal t.co/xLg5Pht7fB

🇺🇸 Katie Zacharia is already out as Trump's White House press secretary after just 5 days. Her first press briefing on Tuesday didn't go too well, and then people started asking questions about her legal background. Trump had called her a lawyer, but it turned out she hadn't passed the bar exam, raising questions about how she'd described her career. Trump, meanwhile, told reporters he'd asked her to reconsider staying in the job, wondering if she really needed it. Neither the White House nor Zacharia has said anything about her departure. Her entire White House career fit into a single work week. Source: NYT / Writer: Daniyal

🇷🇺 Putin showed up in a MILITARY UNIFORM and said military wins have to become political ones "Whenever we achieve a military victory in the field, we must register and consolidate that arena of victory into an arena of political victory as well." He told the troops those battlefield gains need to turn into a formal document of the enemy’s defeat, with the concessions Russia wants locked in. Writer: Lucas t.co/Rs8L4a94vQ

🇺🇸 A senior White House official said Katie Zacharia is TRANSITIONING OUT of the press secretary job She lasted about 4 days after her first briefing, which ended after 14 minutes and 3 questions. Trump had already told her the media was treating her unfairly and suggested she might not need the role. A short run, even by this White House’s standards. Writer: Lucas t.co/CJtFv9LC2X

A groom in China just unwrapped an NVIDIA RTX 5090 at his own wedding and bursts out in tears of joy. His wife is standing right there in her wedding dress. Bro got married and somehow still found a box the most exciting thing in the room. Writer: Oliver t.co/h1nZ438A0G

OIL JUST EXPLODED PAST $111 A BARREL. The energy crisis is getting worse. Brent crude has jumped from roughly $107 to over $111, in just a few minutes! The Middle East is turning into a nightmare for global oil supplies. Houthi attacks are threatening Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, Iran is disrupting shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian strikes are putting additional pressure on Russian refineries. All 3 are hitting a market already struggling with the consequences of months of war. And $111 oil doesn't stay confined to the energy market. It feeds into diesel, shipping, food prices and inflation across the entire global economy. The frightening part is that oil keeps climbing even as governments release emergency reserves to bring prices down. Where is this eventually going? Writer: Oliver

🇻🇦🇷🇺 Pope Leo called Putin from his hospital bed and asked for a CEASEFIRE so aid can reach the Ukrainian town of Oleshky The Vatican said he expressed deep concern over the humanitarian situation in the Kherson region town and pressed for a pause that would let food, medical supplies, and civilians move. Putin told the Kremlin he supports the Vatican’s idea and is ready to cooperate. Both sides still blame each other for blocking the supplies 🤷🏻‍♂️ Source: Reuters / Writer: Lucas

🇺🇸 Trump thinks the media is ROASTING Press Sec. Katie Zacharia and treating her unfairly, so he told her to reconsider the job "I said, 'Katie, do you need this? I don't think you need this.' We're talking about doing something. I want her to have a good life. She's being brutalized by the media." He said the last few days have been rough on her and that he doesn’t want her stuck in that cycle. Trump’s already floating the idea of stepping in so she can move on from the coverage, but the decision is hers. Writer: Lucas t.co/4mXOJXvOUL

🇺🇸 Trump doesn't seem too bothered that Katie Zacharia didn't pass the bar exam. “Well, I wasn't hiring her to be a lawyer... I would say it probably wouldn't have mattered.” He also brought up her loyalty, saying she's been with him since day one, though he admitted it's not an easy job. Fair enough. He hired her for a different job, not to practice law. Writer: Daniyal t.co/2i5fkx6urJ

🇺🇸🇷🇺 The U.S. is now asking Russia for help getting its own diesel deal working. Russia's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev says the U.S. Treasury has asked Russia's sovereign wealth fund to sort out payments for the deal Trump made with Putin. The idea is to bring Russian diesel back to U.S. and global markets to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterms. But here's the awkward part. Trump would have to lift some of his own sanctions on Russian oil to make it work. And apparently, it's quite a mess. Dmitriev admits there are so many sanctions piled on top of each other that even figuring out which ones to remove is difficult. To make things worse, a new U.S. sanctions law could also block future investment deals between the 2 countries. So Washington wants Russian diesel, but first it has to figure out how to get around the sanctions Trump himself imposed. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil is above $100, but the real danger may be what happens to diesel I had an interesting conversation with financial analyst David Lin about what oil markets are telling us as tensions with Iran rise again. Brent is trading around $107 a barrel, and I'm trying to understand whether investors are preparing for another short confrontation or something much worse. David raised a problem that I think deserves more attention. It's not simply how much crude oil the world can produce. It's how much of that oil can actually be refined into diesel, gasoline and other products. He points out that major refining countries are already operating close to capacity. That leaves very little room to compensate if Houthi attacks continue damaging Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure. And diesel matters enormously. It powers the trucks moving goods, the machinery producing them and much of the infrastructure keeping global supply chains functioning. David says those higher transportation costs haven't yet appeared significantly in American grocery inflation data, although trucking companies are already reporting that they're passing them along. We also looked at something curious in the markets. Technology stocks have been weakening while investors move toward bonds, utilities, healthcare and other defensive assets. David isn't calling an AI crash. But he sees a noticeable shift away from risk. What I found most interesting was our disagreement about oil prices. I worry that $107 oil reflects expectations of another major escalation with Iran. David thinks the price also reflects today's unusually expensive shipping conditions, even as tanker traffic through Hormuz has reportedly recovered substantially. Both explanations matter. The next economic shock might not come from oil disappearing from the market, but from the cost of moving and refining what's still available. @davidlin_TV

🇩🇪🇷🇺 AfD's Tino Chrupalla on fears Russia could attack NATO: “Putin has explicitly said that he has no intention of attacking NATO.” Very reassuring. Europe can apparently cancel intelligence services, satellite surveillance and Article 5 planning. Vladimir has given his word. 👏 Writer: Oliver t.co/aEdsK1iiVI