Mario Nawfal

Peter Kuznick: the most dangerous shift in nuclear strategy is that some planners no longer see nuclear war as something that must never happen. They think it can be won. Kuznick points to a school of U.S. strategists who believe advances in AI, sonar and surveillance could make a successful preemptive strike against Russian and Chinese nuclear forces possible. And he says similar escalation pressures now exist across several theaters, from Ukraine to Taiwan. The problem is what happens after the first “limited” nuclear strike. According to Kuznick, Pentagon war games repeatedly fail to contain it. “They never can stop it.” The scenario starts tactical. It ends with full-scale nuclear war.

🇵🇸🇮🇱 How could someone STAND FOR something like this?! Israeli soldiers STOPPED Palestinians who were trying to harvest and bring THEIR OWN FOOD back home. This is from Tuqu', southeast of Bethlehem. Farmers go out to pick the crop that feeds their families, and soldiers and settlers are right there blocking the groves, grabbing the bags, and detaining people on the way back. They’re not letting them get their OWN FOOD. Writer: Lucas t.co/3HdtCO2u0A

Peter Kuznick’s biggest fear isn’t just that nuclear arsenals are growing again. But how much power rests with individual leaders. In the U.S. system, there is effectively no formal political veto between a president and an order to launch nuclear weapons. That’s what he finds terrifying. At the same time, all nine nuclear powers are modernizing their arsenals, after decades in which the global stockpile had been shrinking. So the danger is moving in two directions at once: More capable weapons. And enormous decision-making power concentrated in very few hands. For Kuznick, that combination is the real nightmare.

🇺🇸 Wall Street's AI stocks are taking another hit, and investors are getting nervous. Nvidia-backed CoreWeave fell 7.6%, with investors concerned about how much debt it has taken on. Some of its bonds are now yielding over 15%. And it's not just CoreWeave. Other AI cloud companies, Nebius and Iren, dropped more than 5%, while chipmakers Micron and AMD also fell. The big question is whether companies are borrowing and spending too much money on AI. Meanwhile, the Nasdaq was down 0.7%, but the S&P 500 barely moved because bank stocks were doing much better. So it's not like investors are pulling out of everything. They're just getting a lot more careful about where they put their money, especially when it comes to AI. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇮🇷 Peter Kuznick thinks the nuclear danger with Iran has changed dramatically from where it stood under the 2015 deal. Under the JCPOA, Iran shipped out most of its enriched uranium, sharply limited enrichment and accepted extensive IAEA inspections. Today, Iran has enriched uranium to 60%. And Kuznick’s point is that once you are at 60%, the jump toward weapons-grade material becomes much easier. “It’s easy to get from 60% to 90%.” He still says there is no clear evidence Iran has actually decided to build a bomb. But after repeated attacks, he thinks the political logic inside Iran may be changing fast. The disturbing question is no longer just whether Iran can build one. It’s whether war is convincing more Iranians that they eventually should.

🇺🇸 Kid Rock says Abdul El-Sayed looking ASSIMILATED is exactly why people should be careful about getting him elected "Guess who else 'assimilated?' The Fort Hood shooter. Guess who else 'assimilated?' The pilots who flew airplanes into our World Trade Center." He warned that this ideology wants a foothold in government, beyond the socialist part, calling El-Sayed a national security threat if he reaches the Senate. You can say Kid Rock is outstated, but the cases are there, and they're hard to ignore. Writer: Lucas t.co/pO0neQcE7d

🇮🇹 Truckers and farmers in southern Italy are out blocking roads, with long lines of trucks stuck around Brindisi and other spots. Diesel’s gone past €2.25 a liter, and a lot of these drivers are saying their fuel bill is jumping by about €1,000 every four days. Farmers are joining in too because fuel’s expensive and they’re barely getting anything for their crops. Writer: Daniyal t.co/A1791znyEi

🇪🇸🇲🇦 Spain’s intelligence agency says Morocco KNEW about the Ceuta INVASION days ahead and still let it happen The CNI told the court Moroccan authorities were fully aware of the social-media calls and the rising numbers before the late-July crossings, yet their border response stayed weak. The report says they put the Throne Festival security first and only stepped up after the flow was already out of control. No more room for the "we didn’t see it coming" line. Source: ABC / Writer: Lucas

🇪🇨 WTF is going on in Ecuador? Someone left a human head in a sack right outside a supermarket in Machala last night. Two guys on a motorcycle apparently just dumped it and rode off. Police are looking for them. And the creepiest part? That wasn’t the only one. People found three heads in different parts of the city the same night. Writer: Daniyal t.co/xLg5Pht7fB

🇺🇸 Katie Zacharia is already out as Trump's White House press secretary after just 5 days. Her first press briefing on Tuesday didn't go too well, and then people started asking questions about her legal background. Trump had called her a lawyer, but it turned out she hadn't passed the bar exam, raising questions about how she'd described her career. Trump, meanwhile, told reporters he'd asked her to reconsider staying in the job, wondering if she really needed it. Neither the White House nor Zacharia has said anything about her departure. Her entire White House career fit into a single work week. Source: NYT / Writer: Daniyal

🇷🇺 Putin showed up in a MILITARY UNIFORM and said military wins have to become political ones "Whenever we achieve a military victory in the field, we must register and consolidate that arena of victory into an arena of political victory as well." He told the troops those battlefield gains need to turn into a formal document of the enemy’s defeat, with the concessions Russia wants locked in. Writer: Lucas t.co/Rs8L4a94vQ

🇺🇸 A senior White House official said Katie Zacharia is TRANSITIONING OUT of the press secretary job She lasted about 4 days after her first briefing, which ended after 14 minutes and 3 questions. Trump had already told her the media was treating her unfairly and suggested she might not need the role. A short run, even by this White House’s standards. Writer: Lucas t.co/CJtFv9LC2X

A groom in China just unwrapped an NVIDIA RTX 5090 at his own wedding and bursts out in tears of joy. His wife is standing right there in her wedding dress. Bro got married and somehow still found a box the most exciting thing in the room. Writer: Oliver t.co/h1nZ438A0G

OIL JUST EXPLODED PAST $111 A BARREL. The energy crisis is getting worse. Brent crude has jumped from roughly $107 to over $111, in just a few minutes! The Middle East is turning into a nightmare for global oil supplies. Houthi attacks are threatening Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure, Iran is disrupting shipping around the Strait of Hormuz, and Ukrainian strikes are putting additional pressure on Russian refineries. All 3 are hitting a market already struggling with the consequences of months of war. And $111 oil doesn't stay confined to the energy market. It feeds into diesel, shipping, food prices and inflation across the entire global economy. The frightening part is that oil keeps climbing even as governments release emergency reserves to bring prices down. Where is this eventually going? Writer: Oliver

🇻🇦🇷🇺 Pope Leo called Putin from his hospital bed and asked for a CEASEFIRE so aid can reach the Ukrainian town of Oleshky The Vatican said he expressed deep concern over the humanitarian situation in the Kherson region town and pressed for a pause that would let food, medical supplies, and civilians move. Putin told the Kremlin he supports the Vatican’s idea and is ready to cooperate. Both sides still blame each other for blocking the supplies 🤷🏻‍♂️ Source: Reuters / Writer: Lucas

🇺🇸 Trump thinks the media is ROASTING Press Sec. Katie Zacharia and treating her unfairly, so he told her to reconsider the job "I said, 'Katie, do you need this? I don't think you need this.' We're talking about doing something. I want her to have a good life. She's being brutalized by the media." He said the last few days have been rough on her and that he doesn’t want her stuck in that cycle. Trump’s already floating the idea of stepping in so she can move on from the coverage, but the decision is hers. Writer: Lucas t.co/4mXOJXvOUL

🇺🇸 Trump doesn't seem too bothered that Katie Zacharia didn't pass the bar exam. “Well, I wasn't hiring her to be a lawyer... I would say it probably wouldn't have mattered.” He also brought up her loyalty, saying she's been with him since day one, though he admitted it's not an easy job. Fair enough. He hired her for a different job, not to practice law. Writer: Daniyal t.co/2i5fkx6urJ

🇺🇸🇷🇺 The U.S. is now asking Russia for help getting its own diesel deal working. Russia's investment envoy Kirill Dmitriev says the U.S. Treasury has asked Russia's sovereign wealth fund to sort out payments for the deal Trump made with Putin. The idea is to bring Russian diesel back to U.S. and global markets to lower fuel prices ahead of the midterms. But here's the awkward part. Trump would have to lift some of his own sanctions on Russian oil to make it work. And apparently, it's quite a mess. Dmitriev admits there are so many sanctions piled on top of each other that even figuring out which ones to remove is difficult. To make things worse, a new U.S. sanctions law could also block future investment deals between the 2 countries. So Washington wants Russian diesel, but first it has to figure out how to get around the sanctions Trump himself imposed. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Oil is above $100, but the real danger may be what happens to diesel I had an interesting conversation with financial analyst David Lin about what oil markets are telling us as tensions with Iran rise again. Brent is trading around $107 a barrel, and I'm trying to understand whether investors are preparing for another short confrontation or something much worse. David raised a problem that I think deserves more attention. It's not simply how much crude oil the world can produce. It's how much of that oil can actually be refined into diesel, gasoline and other products. He points out that major refining countries are already operating close to capacity. That leaves very little room to compensate if Houthi attacks continue damaging Saudi Arabia's energy infrastructure. And diesel matters enormously. It powers the trucks moving goods, the machinery producing them and much of the infrastructure keeping global supply chains functioning. David says those higher transportation costs haven't yet appeared significantly in American grocery inflation data, although trucking companies are already reporting that they're passing them along. We also looked at something curious in the markets. Technology stocks have been weakening while investors move toward bonds, utilities, healthcare and other defensive assets. David isn't calling an AI crash. But he sees a noticeable shift away from risk. What I found most interesting was our disagreement about oil prices. I worry that $107 oil reflects expectations of another major escalation with Iran. David thinks the price also reflects today's unusually expensive shipping conditions, even as tanker traffic through Hormuz has reportedly recovered substantially. Both explanations matter. The next economic shock might not come from oil disappearing from the market, but from the cost of moving and refining what's still available. @davidlin_TV

🇩🇪🇷🇺 AfD's Tino Chrupalla on fears Russia could attack NATO: “Putin has explicitly said that he has no intention of attacking NATO.” Very reassuring. Europe can apparently cancel intelligence services, satellite surveillance and Article 5 planning. Vladimir has given his word. 👏 Writer: Oliver t.co/aEdsK1iiVI

🇺🇸🇺🇦 Trump is done arguing about who started the Ukraine war. After calling for Zelensky to be replaced, Trump was confronted with: “Did you forget Putin started the war?” Trump: “I don't CARE anything except for one: I want that war ended! That's all I care about!” That's a remarkable answer from an American president who is now openly questioning Ukraine's leadership while negotiating with Moscow. The reporter wanted him to acknowledge who started the war. Trump made clear that his priority is ending it, regardless of where the question began. Writer: Oliver t.co/Liy6sCkBje

🇺🇸🇸🇦🇮🇱 Trump thinks Saudi Arabia should accept Israel's help in fighting the Houthis. “Yeah I do, sure. Israel has been very helpful to Saudi Arabia.” Saudi Arabia needs all the help it can get against the Houthis, just maybe not from a country it doesn’t officially recognize. Writer: Daniyal t.co/4hu9uwkwYX

🇩🇪 AfD co-leader Tino Chrupalla says Germany should attempt to overhaul the EU before considering a referendum on leaving. They're now in the relationship phase where “we should work on us” comes with divorce papers already attached. Writer: Oliver t.co/5pgZPejKI9

🇺🇸 Trump called the father who TOOK DOWN the shooter at the Oregon school exactly that: A HERO "As bad as it was, we had a great hero who took care of business. Thank God we had him...thank goodness for a man that had a gun and knew how to use it." Kaylub Giamanco was heading home for lunch when he heard the shots at Silver Rail. The man has his 2 daughters in that school, so wait-and-see wasn't an option for him. Writer: Lucas t.co/tHJPN0G2Iu

🇺🇸 Trump is already telling his new press secretary she can walk away from the job. Katie Zacharia has barely completed her first week, and the president is publicly questioning whether she should stay. “I said to her, if I were you, I'd reconsider.” After a rocky White House debut and tough questioning from Sean Hannity, Trump says Zacharia has been treated unfairly. “She's been treated very rough. She's a nice person. I just want her to be happy.” Trump appointed her barely a week ago. Now he's openly discussing the possibility of her departure. Writer: Oliver t.co/Aqj1rx1WlC

🇺🇸 Trump is celebrating Elon after Tesla just made a car fly. And Trump's reaction is hilarious. “I'm VERY HAPPY for Elon! I don't know if you're gonna see ME in that car! VERY impressive.” Tesla's new Roadster used SpaceX-developed thrusters to launch itself over a Cybercab, Cybertruck, Semi, Model Y and Model 3 while in motion. It can even flip in midair and land back on its wheels. And just 8 days before the unveiling, Trump awarded Elon the National Medal of Science. Now the man builds a car that can literally jump over traffic. We went from electric cars to rocket-powered cars that fly. What an absolutely insane time to be alive. Writer: Oliver t.co/gZVuBPlLpg

🇺🇸🇮🇷 I had a deeply unsettling conversation with Professor Peter Kuznick about the possibility of nuclear weapons entering the conflict with Iran. What worries him most isn't necessarily a deliberate decision to start a global nuclear war. It's the growing belief among some military strategists that nuclear weapons can be used in a limited conflict without triggering something much worse. Kuznick argues that this is a dangerously flawed assumption. A tactical nuclear strike might be intended to force an adversary into submission. But the country being attacked could interpret it as the beginning of a much larger offensive and retaliate accordingly. Suddenly, leaders are making decisions involving millions of lives with incomplete information and only minutes to respond. We discussed the American president's authority to order a nuclear strike, the modernization of nuclear arsenals and the possibility that Iran's surviving nuclear infrastructure is buried beyond the reach of conventional American bombs. Kuznick fears that another failed attempt to destroy those facilities could increase pressure for more extreme military options. But he also raised something that deserves more attention. The danger isn't confined to Washington or Tehran. A confrontation involving Russia, China or North Korea could create similar pressures, especially if leaders begin to believe they can eliminate an opponent's ability to retaliate. Kuznick is now appealing to Pope Leo XIV to convene an emergency summit between the major nuclear powers. I don't think nuclear escalation is inevitable, and the discussion offered no evidence that Trump has decided to use a nuclear weapon against Iran. But Kuznick's central warning stayed with me. The most dangerous nuclear war may begin with someone convinced they're starting a limited one.

The Director of the Nuclear Studies Institute just told me Putin and Xi are acting more rationally than Trump And he reminded me that there are no checks and balances between the President of the United States and the nuclear codes

🇺🇸 The U.S. is trying to get another 17 million barrels of oil out of its emergency reserves. It's part of a deal Washington made with around 30 countries back in March to bring down fuel prices during the Iran war. The U.S. agreed to lend 172 million barrels, while the wider group planned to release 400 million barrels. But there's been a problem. Companies have to return the oil later, with up to 24% extra as payment. And the last offer already flopped. When Washington offered its final batch in June, companies only agreed to borrow about 500,000 barrels. Now it's trying again, with another 17 million barrels on offer. Whether companies actually want that oil is another story. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇾🇪🇸🇦 THE HOUTHIS ARE CLOSING IN ON TAIZ And Saudi Arabia could be about to lose something much bigger than a city.. Taiz is one of the last major obstacles standing between the Houthis and a much stronger position in southern Yemen. And right now, it's being slowly strangled. The Houthis have cut the main road to Aden, captured territory south of the city and sent more than 120,000 people fleeing across the province. Inside Taiz, food and medicine are running dangerously low. The UN has warned that wheat and flour supplies could run out within weeks. Nearly 600,000 people live in the city. Many have already survived years of war and siege. Now they're facing it all over again. Saudi warplanes are bombing Houthi positions, but the government's forces are struggling to stop the advance. And here's why this matters far beyond Yemen. If Taiz falls, the Houthis would be in a stronger position to threaten Aden and the approaches to Bab el-Mandeb, one of the world's most important shipping routes. For Saudi Arabia, losing Taiz could fundamentally change the war it's been fighting for more than a decade. And for the people trapped inside the city, the clock is already ticking. Source: Reuters / Writer: Oliver