Mario Nawfal

Netanyahu says attacking Iran before Israel's election would be “not convenient.” Meanwhile, the Pentagon has been preparing options for another major strike, with Trump's own midterm elections part of the discussion. So apparently, whether Iran needs to be bombed depends partly on when Americans and Israelis go to the polls. That's pretty disturbing info about how these decisions are being made... Writer: Oliver

🇹🇷🇵🇰🇾🇪 Pepe Escobar thinks Turkey joining strikes on the Houthis is basically a non-starter. His reason is not just politics. He argues Ankara has little strategic incentive to enter the war, while Pakistan is trapped in a much more awkward position because of its financial dependence on Saudi Arabia. “Pakistan is caught in a horrible trap.” What caught my attention, though, was the other part of his argument. While all this pressure is building, Escobar says Pakistani and Iranian central bank officials have been discussing trade in their own currencies and expanding barter arrangements that bypass the dollar. So Pakistan may be pulled toward Riyadh militarily while quietly deepening economic ties with Tehran. That is a very uncomfortable balancing act. @RealPepeEscobar

🇫🇷 A new French poll suggests 46% of Muslims would consider leaving the country if Marine Le Pen becomes president. Interestingly, 44% of Jewish respondents said the same. Marine Le Pen may have accidentally discovered the world’s first self-deportation policy. Source: Brussels Signal / Writer: Oliver

🇾🇪🇸🇦 One line from Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree deserves far more attention than it’s getting. Saree denied carrying out any operation against “Saudi territory.” But Pepe Escobar’s point is that the Houthis may not consider places like Najran to be Saudi territory at all. “That is Yemeni territory.” If that reading is correct, the statement is much more than a denial. It suggests Ansar Allah may already be thinking beyond Yemen’s current borders and toward claims on southern Saudi provinces. Escobar sees that as the next possible stage after consolidating more of western Yemen. In other words, the most important part of the statement may be the definition of the map itself. @RealPepeEscobar

🇺🇸 9 FBI staffers who worked on Trump’s documents case are suing Kash Patel. They say they were fired just for working on the case, which was later thrown out. They’re also suing Attorney General Todd Blanche. On February 23, an agent working under Patel demanded the case file with their names in it. Days later, all 9 were fired. They say they never got a chance to defend themselves. Patel told Congress they were fired after internal investigations. The 9 say that’s not true. And the timing is interesting. Patel was getting heat over a viral video of him partying with the U.S. Olympic hockey team. Some had even investigated the attempt on Trump’s life in Butler. Now they're fighting to get their jobs back. Source: NBC News / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may be planning a massive strike on Iran with no intention of staying to fight The latest reporting on Trump’s plans for Iran points to a potentially massive attack designed to hit hard, claim victory and withdraw without committing American ground troops. CNN says the Pentagon has considered using the GBU-43, the massive bomb known as the MOAB, against Iranian targets. But there is a problem with the choice of weapon. The MOAB is designed to destroy surface targets, while Iran’s most heavily protected nuclear facilities are buried underground and require specialized bunker-busting weapons. Brandon Weichert believes America’s stockpile of those bunker-busters has already been severely depleted. If he is right, another bombing campaign could consume valuable weapons without accomplishing much strategically. The bigger uncertainty is what Iran does afterward. One possibility is that Tehran retaliates against American bases, claims its own victory and allows Trump to withdraw. Weichert sees a more dangerous scenario in which Iran tries to inflict a much more humiliating defeat, potentially coordinating with the Houthis to threaten American naval forces. That is the central gamble. Trump may be preparing an attack whose primary purpose is to give him a politically acceptable exit. But an exit strategy only works if the other side is willing to let you leave. @WeTheBrandon

🇪🇬 Egypt's President el-Sisi just put the entire country in the hands of its women. “I am entrusting Egypt to every Egyptian girl and woman.” Then he repeats himself, just to be clear, before adding: “I hope the young men and the men won't be upset with me.” That's exactly how you know the men are about to be upset 😂 Writer: Lynn t.co/n7isNSxqae

🇮🇷🇺🇸 Oil is still getting through Hormuz, but this past week has been brutal. So far this month, more than 12 million barrels a day have made it through on average, up from September, even with 26 ships attacked in October alone. Over 9 million barrels a day are moving under U.S. military protection. But the strain is starting to show. Last Thursday, nearly 23 million barrels got through, and yesterday, only about a tenth of that did. That was the same day a cargo ship sank after being hit by an unknown projectile. For crews willing to risk it, that’s reportedly an extra $25,000 per trip. For everyone else, Brent is still sitting above $104. Source: New York Post / Writer: Daniyal

33 mph to a complete stop, just in time to avoid someone else's terrible U-turn. FSD Supervised spotted a driver pulling out illegally and stopped the Tesla before they collided. Now picture how often things like this happen in everyday traffic. Someone misses a stop sign, pulls out unexpectedly or makes a split-second mistake. Tesla FSD can continuously watch its surroundings and react quickly, giving its driver another layer of protection when those moments happen. A guardian angel with cameras, code, and some seriously good reflexes. Nice. @Tesla / Writer: Annette, Designer: Janné

Remember how we used to joke that ONLINE ADS were stalking us? Citizen Lab has now documented an ISRAELI FIRM using the ad ecosystem to track people and (in some cases) help deliver zero-click spyware. Google and others gave it access to the pipes. Our ad blocker has apparently always been both an annoyance remover AND counterintelligence asset. Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 Apparently, you now need $5.3 MILLION to live the American Dream. At least according to Investopedia. But I was looking at their breakdown, and one number genuinely made me laugh. $1.2 MILLION for two new cars at a time over your lifetime! Meanwhile, they budget just $187,000 for vacations. So they're spending 6x more on cars than on actually seeing the world... Seriously now is the Dream becoming unaffordable or did Detroit just write the definition? Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 Matt Gaetz’s old scandal has landed him in federal court. 2 women are suing the former Florida congressman and 2 others, accusing them of a sex trafficking scheme involving young women, drugs and travel across state lines. It’s the same scandal that sank his shot at becoming Trump’s attorney general. It also led him to quit Congress in 2024, just as the House Ethics Committee was wrapping up its investigation. Gaetz says much of it is false, and that the lawsuit leans almost entirely on an ethics report that never let him face his accusers. “Now I will finally have that chance.” The Justice Department never charged him. This time, it’s his accusers taking him to court. Source: Bloomberg / Writer: Daniyal

🇾🇪 The Houthis fired missiles at Yemen’s presidential palace in Aden while the prime minister was inside. Luckily, Prime Minister Shaya al-Zindani made it out unhurt. And it’s not their only front. The Houthis have already surrounded Taiz, Yemen’s 3rd-largest city, and targeted Riyadh’s airport 20 times this month. For a government that operates from Aden because the Houthis took its real capital, there’s not much room left to retreat. Source: AFP / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸 Franklin Graham says even Donald Trump can't save America. “Donald Trump can't save America. He can't turn this around.” Coming from one of Trump's most prominent evangelical supporters, that might sound surprising. But Graham's point is about faith, not politics. He believes America's problems can't be solved by a president alone. Well, God help America then. Writer: Lynn t.co/C21mLzG1Zn

🇩🇪🇺🇦 German AfD's Alice Weidel says Ukrainians should leave Germany once the war ends. You have to say her immigration policy remains admirably free of fine print. @Alice_Weidel / Writer: Oliver t.co/qJqafhXZow

🇷🇺🇺🇦 The battlefield picture in Ukraine is being described much more dramatically than the territorial changes justify. Robert Pape's estimate is that Russia has gone from controlling roughly 18% of Ukraine in 2022 to about 19% today. That matters because the cost has been enormous. Pape points to at least 250,000 confirmed Russian military deaths while gaining only about another 1% of Ukrainian territory. His argument is that this is not a story of rapid Russian conquest. It is a grinding war of attrition where very small territorial gains are being purchased at extraordinary human cost. And if that pace continues, even taking the remaining four oblasts could still take years. @ProfessorPape

🇩🇪🇸🇾 German AfD's Alice Weidel: “100%” of Syrians in Germany should return because the war is over. Subtlety has apparently also been deported. 🫣😆 Writer: Oliver t.co/veL68nBcG0

🇮🇱 Knesset Speaker Amir Ohana has had enough. “Everyone in this hall knows the truth. Israel is not committing genocide. Enough with this despicable lie!” Well, if everyone in the room knows the truth, I guess that settles the entire international debate 🤷🏽‍♀️ Writer: Lynn t.co/nR3NkvDUuK

🇩🇪 German AfD's Alice Weidel: “We need to take Russia's security interests into account. Ignoring Russia's security interests has been the major mistake that we've made.” She's challenging one of the central arguments behind Europe's Russia policy. But that pierces the question at the heart of the debate: Where does recognizing Russia's security concerns end, and accepting its demands over neighboring countries begin? @Alice_Weidel / Writer: Oliver t.co/3dq4LDNvHu

🇩🇪 Interview with German AfD's Alice Weidel: Reporter: “Can you give me one piece of evidence that Putin is interested in peace?” Weidel: “Can you give me one piece of evidence that Zelensky is interested in peace?” She challenges the assumption behind the question and I think it's spot on. Nobody can answer either claim confidently. @Alice_Weidel / Writer: Oliver t.co/YlBSSkZvtW

🇮🇷🇴🇲 The IEA is rushing out even more emergency oil, starting with diesel. Its member countries have already released 330 million barrels since March to make up for the Strait of Hormuz crisis. Another 100 million barrels are still on the way, pushing the total past the original 400 million target. Next up is more than 20 million barrels of diesel, as soon as possible, since that’s where the shortage is worst. For scale, that’s more than double what the IEA released in 2022 after Russia invaded Ukraine. Earlier this month, just 7 tankers were tracked through Hormuz in a single day. So the real question is what happens when the reserves run low and the strait still isn’t open. Source: IEA / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸 Trump got handed a helmet, and the explanation was even better. “We want you to be protected.” The man has Secret Service protection, but someone decided he needed a helmet too. Writer: Lynn t.co/TMcZzNFOBs

🇩🇪 German AfD's Alice Weidel: “The Ukraine cannot win against Russia. It's impossible. The war is already lost.” Is continued Western support capable of changing the outcome, or merely prolonging the fighting? Weidel's answer couldn't be clearer. @Alice_Weidel / Writer: Oliver t.co/rhKxfsNH0x

🇺🇸🇸🇴 CAN TRUMP ACTUALLY STRIP ILHAN OMAR OF HER CITIZENSHIP AND DEPORT HER? This has already gone well beyond political threats. Federal agents have searched Ilhan Omar's home, seized her passport, phone and computers, and subpoenaed members of her family. According to the Wall Street Journal, investigators are digging into immigration paperwork from more than 25 years ago, trying to determine whether Omar or her late father misrepresented her age when she obtained citizenship. Omar denies wrongdoing and calls the investigation politically motivated. Think about where this has gotten. The woman has served in Congress since 2019, and could now face a legal fight over whether she was ever entitled to the American citizenship that made her eligible for office... And this is unfolding less than 3 weeks before the midterms. No charges have been announced, and taking away her citizenship would require court proceedings. But the investigation has already reached her home, her family and her personal devices. Source: The Wall Street Journal, Axios / Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 Marjorie Taylor Greene delivers a brutal verdict on Trump's presidency. “Practically everything the Trump admin has done has failed.” That's one of Trump's most prominent former allies. Greene is responding to reports that America's campaign of bombing suspected drug-smuggling boats has failed to stop the cocaine trade. More than 70 vessels destroyed, nearly 240 people killed, and cocaine is still reaching international markets in record quantities. But what really stands out is how far Greene has turned against Trump. Writer: Oliver

🇮🇷🇾🇪🇵🇰 Another major Iran war may not stay confined to Iran, Yemen, or even the Gulf. Robert Pape thinks a wider escalation could start reactivating militant networks across places like Balochistan and Pakistan. That matters because the second-order effects can last much longer than the original war. Pape points to Iraq as the cautionary example: the invasion did not just reshape Iraq. It helped destabilize the wider region and contributed to conditions in which groups like ISIS emerged. His concern is that the same pattern could happen again, only with more advanced drones and AI added to the mix. The war itself may be only the first crisis. The bigger danger is what gets activated around it. @ProfessorPape

🇺🇸 Trump predicted how the media would question him about him having “serious problems.” Then admitted he has no idea what those problems actually are... He fact-checked himself before CNN even had the chance. Smart move 👍 Writer: Oliver t.co/N27aTE27XH

🇺🇸 Trump really isn't holding back on Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed. “He hates our country. So I hope that he is defeated.” Trump accused El-Sayed of making disparaging remarks about a place in Michigan he described as “very revered.” Okay, okay we get it. You hate Abdul…I mean Mohammad. Writer: Lynn t.co/0oe8s3HLBy

🇪🇸🇲🇦 Pedro Sánchez says Spain wants “the best possible relations” with Morocco. Diplomatic for: PLEASE let’s keep this from becoming weird again. Writer: Oliver t.co/SymQjTWR7c

🇺🇸🇮🇷🇾🇪 Robert Pape: the biggest mistake in planning another short war with Iran is assuming only Iran gets to respond. His point is that this is no longer a two-player conflict. Iran, the US, Israel and the Houthis are all tied into the same escalation chain. So even if Trump intends a 3-day strike and then wants to walk away, the Houthis may see that as the moment to attack American ships before they become the next target. “This is World War One.” Not because the situations are identical. Because once one actor moves, the next move suddenly becomes rational for someone else. And then the war stops following the plan that started it. @ProfessorPape