🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump may not need another major attack on Iran to bring down the regime
We had a fascinating disagreement with Will Chamberlain about whether America is actually winning its war against Iran.
Will believes Washington has the upper hand, and that time is working against Tehran.
His argument is that Iran's economy cannot survive indefinitely under sanctions and a naval blockade. Its currency is collapsing, its ability to trade is severely restricted, and he believes the regime will eventually be forced to make concessions or face collapse.
He expects Trump to maintain that pressure after the midterms, regardless of the election results.
But there's a serious problem with this calculation.
Iran is still fighting. Its missiles are still threatening shipping in the Strait of Hormuz, and the economic consequences are increasingly being felt far beyond the Middle East.
Will acknowledges that his original prediction of an Iranian collapse within six weeks was wrong. Yet he remains convinced that the regime's position is deteriorating faster than America's.
We also discussed the possibility of U.S. intervention in Yemen, where he was surprisingly reluctant to support another American military commitment on Saudi Arabia's behalf.
Will sees a blockade that is gradually breaking Iran.
But there's also a strategy that depends on Iran breaking before the economic, military and political costs become too great for America itself.
And nobody can confidently tell us which happens first.
@WeTheBrandon @willchamberlain
tweetkeep
