Mario Nawfal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Ian Bremmer still doesn’t expect Trump to dramatically escalate the Iran war before November. Afterward, he sees the calculus changing. “𝘊𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘴𝘦𝘦 𝘢𝘯 𝘪𝘯𝘤𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘤𝘩𝘦𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘱 𝘰𝘧 𝘮𝘪𝘭𝘪𝘵𝘢𝘳𝘺 𝘴𝘵𝘳𝘪𝘬𝘦𝘴 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜.𝘚. 𝘢𝘧𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘮𝘪𝘥𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘮𝘴? 𝘐 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘯𝘬 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘢𝘯𝘴𝘸𝘦𝘳, 𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘢𝘳𝘨𝘪𝘯𝘴, 𝘺𝘦𝘴.” Bremmer’s reasoning is political: record diesel prices and elevated gasoline prices give Trump little incentive to take additional risks before Americans vote. The midterms may not be an off-ramp for the war. They may simply be the restraint keeping the next escalation on hold. @ianbremmer

🇾🇪🇸🇦 Thousands are fleeing Yemen by sea as fighting between the Houthis and Saudi-backed government forces intensifies. Families arriving in Djibouti described dangerous crossings and the chaos they left behind, with many saying they simply had no safe option left. For civilians, the war is becoming a race to get out before the next round of fighting reaches them. Heartbreaking 💔 Writer: Sol t.co/asWHdfhXme

🇩🇪 Germany’s Chancellor Merz: "𝘓𝘦𝘵’𝘴 𝘴𝘪𝘮𝘱𝘭𝘺 𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘺𝘰𝘶𝘯𝘨 𝘱𝘦𝘰𝘱𝘭𝘦: 𝘵𝘩𝘪𝘴 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘰𝘧𝘧𝘦𝘳𝘴 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘢𝘴 𝘮𝘶𝘤𝘩 𝘢𝘴 𝘯𝘰 𝘨𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘣𝘦𝘧𝘰𝘳𝘦." A housing crisis, the pension bill for three generations and now a year of compulsory service. The gift basket is extraordinary. Writer: Oliver t.co/XumUvLApIS

🇸🇦🇾🇪 Saudi Arabia went to war with the Houthis. Now it's reportedly asking them for a truce. What has happened in Yemen over the past few days is extraordinary. The Houthis have seized huge amounts of territory, consolidated their position around Bab el-Mandeb and repeatedly attacked Saudi. Riyadh asked Trump for help and got a hard no. It turned to its regional defense partners. Very little arrived. It even went to China, asking Beijing to pressure Iran into restraining the Houthis. And now, according to a report from Al Mayadeen, Saudi has approached the Houthis through Omani mediators seeking a two-week ceasefire. The timing matters. Saudi is also reportedly running low on missile interceptors and has asked Britain, France, Pakistan and Egypt to deploy additional air-defense support. America, its principal military supplier, is facing interceptor pressures of its own after six months of war. So Riyadh now finds itself in an extraordinary position. Unable to defeat the Houthis, or rely on America to do it for them, and increasingly unable to sustain the cost of defending itself from them. It's been a wild week for Riyadh. @WeTheBrandon

🇬🇧🇺🇸 Britain asked Apple to help it snoop on its own people, and Apple walked away. Last year the government quietly ordered Apple to build a backdoor into iCloud, a hidden key that would let officials see your photos, messages and files. Rather than build it, Apple pulled its strongest iCloud security from Britain entirely. Now Apple is fighting the order in a special spy court, but the UK has secrecy rules, and those rules mean neither the government nor Apple is allowed to admit the order even exists. That's why most of the case would be heard behind closed doors, even though Trump and JD Vance have already talked about the order publicly. Today Apple and 2 human rights groups asked the court to end the charade and hear the case in public, with one lawyer calling it the "emperor's new clothes." The court hasn't ruled yet, and British iPhone users are still stuck without Apple's strongest security. Source: The Telegraph / Writer: Daniyal

🇸🇦🇮🇷 After initially refusing direct engagement following attacks on the kingdom, Ian Bremmer says Saudi Arabia has now agreed to participate in talks with Iran. What changed? Riyadh asked Washington for direct military help against the Houthis. Bremmer says the U.S. offered intelligence, but not renewed strikes. Pakistan has also stopped short of activating the Mecca agreement. “𝘛𝘩𝘦 𝘚𝘢𝘶𝘥𝘪𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘳𝘦𝘢𝘭𝘪𝘻𝘦𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘳𝘦’𝘴 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘴𝘰 𝘧𝘢𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘪𝘳 𝘧𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘴 𝘢𝘳𝘦 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘵𝘰 𝘥𝘦𝘧𝘦𝘯𝘥 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮.” Meanwhile, Iran has demonstrated it can hit Saudi energy infrastructure again. That changes the negotiating equation rather quickly. @ianbremmer

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump says he is approaching a major decision in the Iran war: make another push for diplomacy, or return to full-scale combat. “𝘐 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘢 𝘣𝘪𝘨 𝘥𝘦𝘤𝘪𝘴𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘤𝘰𝘮𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘱. 𝘋𝘰 𝘐 𝘸𝘢𝘯𝘵 𝘵𝘰 𝘨𝘰 𝘪𝘯 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘢𝘯𝘯𝘪𝘩𝘪𝘭𝘢𝘵𝘦 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘮 𝘰𝘳 𝘥𝘰 𝘐 𝘯𝘰𝘵?” The immediate pressure point is Tuesday’s meeting with Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait and Oman at the UN. Trump says he wants to hear directly from them before deciding the next phase. Meanwhile, U.S. forces are being kept at current levels in the Middle East through the end of the year, the blockade remains in place, Hormuz traffic is still below pre-war levels, and Washington is already drafting a post-war strategy for containing Iran. The war is sitting in an armed holding pattern. Trump now has to decide whether that becomes the off-ramp or the loading screen. Source: Axios / Writer: Oliver

🇩🇪 German Chancellor Merz just gave the obituary for Germany’s old economic model. Cheap goods from China. Cheap energy from Russia. Security from America. Germany got very comfortable outsourcing the expensive parts of being a major power. Merz says that era is over and it is not coming back. The harder question is what replaces it. Writer: Oliver t.co/tukwg0jBND

🇺🇸 Well, this is an unfortunate look for a political canvasser. Footage circulating online appears to show someone wearing a Stronger Maine shirt, a super PAC supporting Sen. Susan Collins, walking off with a package from someone’s porch. Seems like “door-to-door outreach” got a little lost in translation. Writer: Lynn t.co/oIsbgb4Srp

🇮🇹🇷🇺 PM Meloni says Putin is trying to bait Europe into an escalation. She argues Moscow’s provocations are multiplying because the war in Ukraine has not gone the way Putin promised, and he now needs to shift attention. "Don’t take the bait." She says reacting aggressively would play straight into Moscow’s hands. Writer: Sol t.co/8zg4berA5w

🇺🇸🇨🇳 Trump's answer to the AI race with China is to put everyone at the same dinner table. Jensen Huang, Sam Altman and Tim Cook are all expected at next week's state dinner for Xi, and AI is the real item on the menu. Huang's invite is the loud one, since Beijing has spent years hunting for ways around the U.S. ban on his best Nvidia chips, and now he's eating dinner with the man doing the hunting. The ban hasn't worked that well anyway, with Chinese open-weight models already breathing down the necks of American labs. Trump officials are even weighing a private sit-down with the tech bosses on the sidelines of the visit. A White House official said Trump invited "several great American business leaders" because he will always prioritize making good deals for the country. The guest list tells you exactly what this dinner is really about. Source: CNBC / Writer: Daniyal

Starship has been to space before. This time, it plans to go around Earth. Flight 14 is targeting September 22 for Starship’s first true orbital insertion, roughly 275 km up and six full laps around the planet. If all goes to plan, it’ll deploy 26 Starlink V3 satellites before deorbiting and coming back down over the Pacific. Up until now, Starship went to space and came back. This time it plans to stay up long enough to circle the world. @SpaceX @Starlink / Writer: Annette, Grok Imagine Designer: Janné

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The U.S. Air Force retired the Predator back in 2018, and Iran may have just retired 2 more. U.S. officials say Iranian forces downed at least 2 MQ-1 drones in recent days, though it's still unclear where they went down or which version they were. If they were old Predators, that's about $8 million gone, but if they were the Army's Gray Eagles, which special forces also fly, the loss could run into tens of millions. Over the Strait of Hormuz, these drones keep constant watch on Iranian military moves and threats to U.S. forces and commercial shipping, and they can carry Hellfire missiles too. U.S. Central Command declined to comment on the latest losses. A Congressional Budget Office report this week counted at least 24 MQ-9 Reapers lost since the war began, worth around $720 million, plus a $150 million MQ-4C Triton. That puts the war's drone losses close to $900 million, and that's before anyone adds these 2 to the bill. Source: CBS News / Writer: Daniyal

This is what the future of Neuralink can look like. A clinical trial participant who lost his voice uses his implant to say “I love you” with his mind. There's a lot of talk about brain chips, AI and transhumanism, but then sometimes the breakthrough is simply: giving someone a piece of their life back. Writers: Lynn, Oliver t.co/kEpYmXOrsj

🇮🇹 Enter illegally, get deported. Giorgia Meloni is putting Italy’s immigration policy in the bluntest possible terms: “𝘐𝘮𝘮𝘪𝘨𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯 𝘪𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘢 𝘳𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘵. 𝘍𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘰𝘯, 𝘪𝘧 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘦𝘳 𝘐𝘵𝘢𝘭𝘺 𝘪𝘭𝘭𝘦𝘨𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺, 𝘺𝘰𝘶 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘣𝘦 𝘪𝘮𝘮𝘦𝘥𝘪𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘭𝘺 𝘥𝘦𝘱𝘰𝘳𝘵𝘦𝘥!” Meloni isn’t leaving much room for interpretation. Source: @visegrad24 / Writer: Lynn

🇺🇸 A bill to stop AI data centers from dumping their power costs on you passed the House 417–3. Then one senator stopped it. The Ratepayer Protection Act would require states to consider rules making large data centers cover the additional grid costs they create, rather than shifting those costs onto other ratepayers. Sen. Martin Heinrich objected because he argues the House bill does not go far enough and wants stronger, enforceable protections instead. So Washington has achieved one of its favorite outcomes: 417 members agree something should be done. One senator says it should do more. And for now, nothing passes. Writer: Oliver t.co/BykTE1eOjI

🇫🇷🇱🇧 Macron is doubling down on France’s support for the Lebanese Army. His focus: one state, one authority, across all of Lebanon. “𝘌𝘹𝘵𝘦𝘯𝘥𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘓𝘦𝘣𝘢𝘯𝘦𝘴𝘦 𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦’𝘴 𝘢𝘶𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘺 𝘰𝘷𝘦𝘳 𝘪𝘵𝘴 𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘪𝘳𝘦 𝘵𝘦𝘳𝘳𝘪𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘪𝘴 𝘢 𝘧𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘢𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘨𝘰𝘢𝘭.” Source: @LBCI_NEWS / Writer: Lynn

🇺🇸🇪🇺 NATO allies are now sitting a 57-question loyalty exam set by the Pentagon. One of the questions asks whether a country has been "publicly supportive of U.S. foreign policy priorities." It's part of a 6-month review of U.S. troops in Europe, and Hegseth has already warned that some countries will fail. He originally wanted to announce a 25,000 troop cut in June, but that would've pushed U.S. forces below the 76,000 minimum Congress set, so the review came instead. That same 25,000 number could come right back once the review ends. Meanwhile, the U.S. is still pouring billions into bases in Britain, Spain and Romania because it needs them for the Iran war. Europe is getting the message that U.S. protection now comes with conditions, and at least 8 NATO countries are already shopping for non-American weapons. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇦🇺 Sydney got a touch of Gotham after Batman was spotted standing on top of the Opera House for Batman Day. Definitely the hero we deserve. Honestly, exactly the sort of nonsense landmarks should be used for. Writer: Oliver t.co/fv6tjRsRmr

🇺🇸 The U.S. military wants to make sure there is nowhere on Earth beyond its reach. Gen. Dan Caine says the Air Force must be able to generate combat power, mobility and strike capability even while under attack. His take: America should be able to hit anywhere on the globe, whenever it chooses, and keep that force going. Writer: Sol t.co/8KU6Duaj4J

🇵🇱🇺🇸 Trump says the U.S. is making “major progress” toward establishing a new Army base in Poland, with the location potentially announced soon. It would deepen a military relationship that has already grown sharply this year. Trump announced another 5,000 U.S. troops for Poland in May, while Warsaw has been pushing for a permanent American base. Europe keeps discussing strategic autonomy, while Poland keeps asking where America would like to park the tanks. Source: @realDonaldTrump / Writer: Oliver

🇨🇳 A Chinese university just casually demonstrated a real jetpack on campus Writer: Sol t.co/X5I5jNJ4Cy

🇵🇱 Poland isn’t looking for a war, but Tusk says it’s ready for one if it comes. “𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘬 𝘸𝘢𝘳, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘥𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘶𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘦 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘮 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘦 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘶𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴.” Basically: attack Poland, and you’re picking a fight with NATO. Writer: Lynn t.co/ydQ7VfCLV1

Everyone’s talking about AI safety. Palantir CEO Alex Karp says his customers are worried about a very different kind. Their fear? Handing over valuable company data and ideas to an AI model only for a competitor to eventually benefit from them. Apparently, some clients are livid about it and Karp says their descriptions of the risk get a lot more colorful than he can repeat on camera. Writer: Lynn t.co/lu3XoYDCUJ

🇵🇱 Polish PM Tusk says Poland learned the lesson of 1939: “𝘐𝘯 1939, 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘱𝘦𝘳. 𝘞𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘧𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘦.” Today, he points to NATO and EU membership, defence spending near 5% of GDP, €44 billion from the EU’s SAFE programme and what he calls one of Europe’s strongest armies and best-protected borders. Poland looked at its history and decided to go for considerably more artillery. Writer: Oliver t.co/ZMnSTQCoCA

🇨🇳🇺🇸🇮🇷 China wants to walk into the Trump summit as the one country that can calm Iran down. Yesterday China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted Iran's foreign minister in Beijing and told Tehran and Washington to cool it, go back to their June peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Today Wang was on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio talking about the Middle East and the "next stage" of high-level talks. Talking to both sides on back-to-back days, just a week before Xi's expected U.S. visit, hardly looks like a coincidence. Beijing has skin in this too, since a closed Hormuz chokes off a big chunk of the oil China imports. If Trump wants Iran sorted, Xi is making sure China has a seat at that table. Trump has already named the date, September 24, and Beijing still won't confirm it. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Neither America nor Iran is actually trying to win this war. 6 months into the Iran war, Ian Bremmer sees something strange beneath all the escalation: Restraint. Iran has not launched major attacks on critical Gulf infrastructure. The U.S. has not sent ground troops, attacked Kharg Island, resumed leadership assassinations or unleashed the full economic campaign threatened against countries still dealing with Tehran. Bremmer calls what is happening instead “price discovery.” Washington and Tehran want incompatible outcomes in the Strait of Hormuz, but both are probing for how much pain the other side can absorb. So they escalate just enough to demonstrate leverage, while trying not to trigger the regional war neither side appears to want. That is why Bremmer remains less worried about a sudden massive escalation than many other analysts. “Neither the Iranians nor the Americans are actually trying to win. They're trying to avoid losing.” That distinction explains a lot. Iran keeps enough pressure on shipping and regional infrastructure to preserve leverage. Washington keeps enough military and economic pressure on Iran to deny Tehran control of the outcome. Neither can force the other to surrender. Neither wants to pay the price of trying. So the war continues, not because either side sees a clear path to victory, but because neither has yet found an acceptable way to lose. @ianbremmer

🇵🇱 Polish PM Tusk is reaching back to 1939 to make a very current warning. “𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯, 𝘐 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘥𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴: 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘯𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.” 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵: “𝘏𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘵𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘧, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘳𝘩𝘺𝘮𝘦𝘴.” For Poland, that is more than literary flourish. This basically counts as national security doctrine. Writer: Oliver t.co/kag4PhItow

🇺🇦🇷🇺 20 to 30 minutes. That’s how long Gen. Dan Caine says a new Russian recruit can expect to survive in some of the most dangerous parts of the front line. Cheap precision weapons, deployed fast and constantly adapted, have completely changed what survival on a modern battlefield looks like. War has always been brutal. Drones have made it brutally efficient. Writer: Lynn t.co/nkQdfPikK5

🇱🇧🇮🇱 Lebanon says 4,386 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since March 2, with another 12,407 wounded. That is more than 16,000 people killed or injured in a little over 6 months, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The figures keep climbing faster than the news cycle can really absorb them. By the time one casualty count settles into public consciousness, there is already another one. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Oliver