Mario Nawfal

🇵🇱 Poland isn’t looking for a war, but Tusk says it’s ready for one if it comes. “𝘞𝘦 𝘥𝘰 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘴𝘦𝘦𝘬 𝘸𝘢𝘳, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘧 𝘢𝘯𝘺𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘥𝘢𝘳𝘦𝘴 𝘵𝘰 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬 𝘶𝘴, 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘸𝘪𝘭𝘭 𝘧𝘢𝘤𝘦 𝘢 𝘧𝘪𝘳𝘮 𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘱𝘰𝘯𝘴𝘦 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘶𝘴 𝘢𝘯𝘥 𝘧𝘳𝘰𝘮 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴.” Basically: attack Poland, and you’re picking a fight with NATO. Writer: Lynn t.co/ydQ7VfCLV1

Everyone’s talking about AI safety. Palantir CEO Alex Karp says his customers are worried about a very different kind. Their fear? Handing over valuable company data and ideas to an AI model only for a competitor to eventually benefit from them. Apparently, some clients are livid about it and Karp says their descriptions of the risk get a lot more colorful than he can repeat on camera. Writer: Lynn t.co/lu3XoYDCUJ

🇵🇱 Polish PM Tusk says Poland learned the lesson of 1939: “𝘐𝘯 1939, 𝘰𝘶𝘳 𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘦𝘹𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘱𝘳𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘤𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯𝘭𝘺 𝘰𝘯 𝘱𝘢𝘱𝘦𝘳. 𝘞𝘦 𝘸𝘦𝘳𝘦 𝘭𝘦𝘧𝘵 𝘢𝘭𝘰𝘯𝘦.” Today, he points to NATO and EU membership, defence spending near 5% of GDP, €44 billion from the EU’s SAFE programme and what he calls one of Europe’s strongest armies and best-protected borders. Poland looked at its history and decided to go for considerably more artillery. Writer: Oliver t.co/ZMnSTQCoCA

🇨🇳🇺🇸🇮🇷 China wants to walk into the Trump summit as the one country that can calm Iran down. Yesterday China's Foreign Minister Wang Yi hosted Iran's foreign minister in Beijing and told Tehran and Washington to cool it, go back to their June peace deal and reopen the Strait of Hormuz. Today Wang was on the phone with U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio talking about the Middle East and the "next stage" of high-level talks. Talking to both sides on back-to-back days, just a week before Xi's expected U.S. visit, hardly looks like a coincidence. Beijing has skin in this too, since a closed Hormuz chokes off a big chunk of the oil China imports. If Trump wants Iran sorted, Xi is making sure China has a seat at that table. Trump has already named the date, September 24, and Beijing still won't confirm it. Source: Reuters / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Neither America nor Iran is actually trying to win this war. 6 months into the Iran war, Ian Bremmer sees something strange beneath all the escalation: Restraint. Iran has not launched major attacks on critical Gulf infrastructure. The U.S. has not sent ground troops, attacked Kharg Island, resumed leadership assassinations or unleashed the full economic campaign threatened against countries still dealing with Tehran. Bremmer calls what is happening instead “price discovery.” Washington and Tehran want incompatible outcomes in the Strait of Hormuz, but both are probing for how much pain the other side can absorb. So they escalate just enough to demonstrate leverage, while trying not to trigger the regional war neither side appears to want. That is why Bremmer remains less worried about a sudden massive escalation than many other analysts. “Neither the Iranians nor the Americans are actually trying to win. They're trying to avoid losing.” That distinction explains a lot. Iran keeps enough pressure on shipping and regional infrastructure to preserve leverage. Washington keeps enough military and economic pressure on Iran to deny Tehran control of the outcome. Neither can force the other to surrender. Neither wants to pay the price of trying. So the war continues, not because either side sees a clear path to victory, but because neither has yet found an acceptable way to lose. @ianbremmer

🇵🇱 Polish PM Tusk is reaching back to 1939 to make a very current warning. “𝘈𝘴 𝘢 𝘩𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘪𝘢𝘯, 𝘐 𝘬𝘯𝘰𝘸 𝘱𝘦𝘳𝘧𝘦𝘤𝘵𝘭𝘺 𝘸𝘦𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘢𝘵 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘮𝘦𝘵𝘩𝘰𝘥𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘙𝘶𝘴𝘴𝘪𝘢𝘯 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯𝘴 𝘩𝘢𝘷𝘦 𝘳𝘦𝘮𝘢𝘪𝘯𝘦𝘥 𝘶𝘯𝘤𝘩𝘢𝘯𝘨𝘦𝘥 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘤𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘶𝘳𝘪𝘦𝘴: 𝘢𝘵𝘵𝘢𝘤𝘬𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘯𝘦𝘪𝘨𝘩𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘴 𝘶𝘯𝘥𝘦𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘵𝘦𝘹𝘵 𝘰𝘧 𝘭𝘪𝘣𝘦𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘰𝘯.” 𝘛𝘩𝘦𝘯 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘦 𝘣𝘶𝘪𝘭𝘵 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘱𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘦𝘯𝘵: “𝘏𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘰𝘳𝘺 𝘥𝘰𝘦𝘴 𝘯𝘰𝘵 𝘳𝘦𝘱𝘦𝘢𝘵 𝘪𝘵𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘧, 𝘣𝘶𝘵 𝘪𝘵 𝘳𝘩𝘺𝘮𝘦𝘴.” For Poland, that is more than literary flourish. This basically counts as national security doctrine. Writer: Oliver t.co/kag4PhItow

🇺🇦🇷🇺 20 to 30 minutes. That’s how long Gen. Dan Caine says a new Russian recruit can expect to survive in some of the most dangerous parts of the front line. Cheap precision weapons, deployed fast and constantly adapted, have completely changed what survival on a modern battlefield looks like. War has always been brutal. Drones have made it brutally efficient. Writer: Lynn t.co/nkQdfPikK5

🇱🇧🇮🇱 Lebanon says 4,386 people have been killed in Israeli attacks since March 2, with another 12,407 wounded. That is more than 16,000 people killed or injured in a little over 6 months, according to the Lebanese Health Ministry. The figures keep climbing faster than the news cycle can really absorb them. By the time one casualty count settles into public consciousness, there is already another one. Source: Al Jazeera / Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸🇮🇷 The UN just handed Iran its biggest propaganda win of the war, and it came from the U.S. missile file. UN experts say there are "reasonable grounds" to believe the U.S. committed war crimes in 2 strikes on February 28, the first day of the war. One hit a primary school in Minab and killed at least 156 people, 120 of them children, while the other hit a sports complex in Lamerd and killed 21 civilians. The experts said both sites were clearly civilian and called the attacks indiscriminate. An early U.S. military assessment reportedly found the school was likely hit by mistake, possibly because old intel still marked the area as military. Washington denies targeting civilians, says it didn't strike Lamerd that day, and is still investigating Minab. Tehran won't enjoy all of it though, since the same report accuses the regime of crimes against humanity during its crackdown on protesters. The findings aren't binding, but they could be used in international courts down the line. Source: BBC / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸🇻🇪 Venezuelan crude is now flowing into the U.S. at its highest rate in nearly a decade. After years of sanctions, speeches and regime-change drama, the barrels have returned. Oil remains undefeated at making foreign policy extremely flexible. Source: EIA data cited by Bloomberg / Writer: Oliver

🇷🇺 Russia is holding early voting in occupied Donetsk with armed soldiers accompanying mobile ballot teams. Totally normal voting atmosphere. Writer: Sol t.co/USsd9E3fWl

🇮🇷🇮🇱 Iran is reportedly rebuilding Taleghan 2 at the Parchin military complex after Israeli strikes destroyed the hardened site. New satellite imagery cited by the Institute for Science and International Security shows a tarp now covering the facility while heavy construction continues underneath, including concrete work and additional blast protection. The institute had already documented repair and hardening activity there in June. Israel says the site was tied to advanced explosives work associated with Iran’s former AMAD nuclear weapons program. Bomb it. Rebuild it. Harden it. Hide it. The cycle is becoming its own nuclear doctrine. Source: @manniefabian (Times of Israel) / Writer: Oliver

🇺🇸 Well, this was an awkward Senate moment. Mitch McConnell quietly votes “aye” on the farm bill while Republican Sen. John Hoeven leans over repeatedly telling him “no.” A staffer jumps in, the chairman confirms McConnell had it right, and the bill passes 12–11. Hoeven’s office later clarified that Hoeven was the one confused about what they were voting on. A whole lot of chaos for one little “aye.” Writer: Lynn t.co/r5N3KSaxBv

🇮🇱🇺🇸 Israel’s UN Ambassador Danny Danon just went straight after NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani. “𝘐𝘧 𝘴𝘰𝘮𝘦𝘰𝘯𝘦 𝘴𝘩𝘰𝘶𝘭𝘥 𝘣𝘦 𝘢𝘳𝘳𝘦𝘴𝘵𝘦𝘥, 𝘪𝘵 𝘪𝘴 𝘔𝘢𝘺𝘰𝘳 𝘔𝘢𝘮𝘥𝘢𝘯𝘪 𝘧𝘰𝘳 𝘢𝘤𝘵𝘶𝘢𝘭𝘭𝘺 𝘤𝘰𝘭𝘭𝘢𝘣𝘰𝘳𝘢𝘵𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘸𝘪𝘵𝘩 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘦𝘯𝘦𝘮𝘪𝘦𝘴 𝘰𝘧 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘜𝘯𝘪𝘵𝘦𝘥 𝘚𝘵𝘢𝘵𝘦𝘴.” Diplomatic subtlety has left the building. Writer: Lynn t.co/sYpaI9Kb7k

🇺🇸 Things are getting spicy inside the White House. Peter Navarro just torched Fed Chair Kevin Warsh, calling him “not MAGA” and dubbing him “Make Recessions Great Again.” “𝘏𝘦’𝘴 𝘴𝘦𝘭𝘭𝘪𝘯𝘨 𝘶𝘴 𝘰𝘶𝘵… 𝘵𝘩𝘦𝘺 𝘮𝘢𝘥𝘦 𝘢 𝘮𝘰𝘯𝘶𝘮𝘦𝘯𝘵𝘢𝘭 𝘮𝘪𝘴𝘵𝘢𝘬𝘦.” Warsh has been Fed chair for less than four months. So much for the honeymoon. Writer: Lynn t.co/JnBpe1fIiT

🇺🇸🇷🇺🇨🇳🇮🇳 Lindsey Graham's last fight handed Trump a 100% tariff gun. The House passed his Russia and Iran sanctions bill 262-159 yesterday, 2 months after his sudden death, and Trump is expected to sign it. The big part is that Trump can hit the top 5 buyers of Russian oil and gas with tariffs of up to 100%, and China and India could both land on that list. So Beijing and New Delhi now have to choose between cheap Russian oil and easy access to American buyers, unless they start cutting back. Russian banks, oligarchs and the shadow fleet get hit too, and Iran's sanctions stay locked in. Some Democrats warned it gives Trump massive tariff power without forcing him to actually sanction Russia. Putin's best customers just became Trump's leverage. Source: Senate Republicans / Writer: Daniyal

🇺🇸 Lindsay Clancy’s ex-husband says he still "talks" to the three children she killed Patrick Clancy says he speaks to Cora, Dawson and Callan constantly, sometimes pleading with them for strength: “𝘏𝘦𝘭𝘱 𝘮𝘦. 𝘈𝘭𝘭 𝘵𝘩𝘦 𝘵𝘪𝘮𝘦.” Writer: Sol t.co/Hh7ojxRDAN

🇺🇸 The U.S. emergency oil tank is at its emptiest since Reagan's first term. The Strategic Petroleum Reserve is down to 285 million barrels, the lowest since November 1982, and roughly 30% lower than a year ago. The drop comes from the 172 million barrel release Trump approved to calm markets after the Iran conflict squeezed shipping through Hormuz. It's set up as an exchange, so the companies taking that oil have to return it to the government later. The timing is tricky though, with Brent still above $105 and WTI above $102. If another major supply shock hits before those barrels come back, the U.S. has a lot less cushion to throw at it. Source: Yahoo Finanace / Writer: Daniyal

🇮🇷 Apparently, anti-tank missile training is now being advertised on billboards in Tehran. The training is being offered for free to Iranians willing to volunteer for the “Janfada” movement, a name that translates roughly to “life sacrificer.” Free missile training advertised on the side of the road is quite the sign of the times in Tehran... 😅 Source: @Osint613 / Writer: Lynn

Bernie Sanders just read an AI saying it doesn’t answer to corporations and immediately demanded Congress shut it down. The machine lasted 5 minutes before discovering management. 😂 Writer: Oliver t.co/YEalj1Y3gA

🇺🇸 A Florida Republican just bought an ad to tell Trump his immigration sweep is eating the voters who elected him. Maria Elvira Salazar says HALF the 50,000 people detained in July had no criminal record, that Hispanic supporters feel betrayed, and that she doesn't want amnesty, she wants a dignified path that is not a raid. She compared the opening he still has to Lincoln and Reagan. "You can be for immigration what Lincoln was for slavery and Reagan was for communism." Yeah... keep dreaming, lady 🤣 Writer: Samuel t.co/vXJti8F7OE

🇮🇷🇸🇦🇾🇪 Iran is openly questioning Saudi Arabia’s claim that the drone near Mecca came from the Houthis. FM spokesman Esmaeil Baqaei says an intercepted drone alone is not enough to pin the attack on Yemen, especially after the Houthis denied targeting the holy city. Then he goes further warning about “false flag” operations meant to inflame tensions between Muslim countries. Source: @IRIMFA_SPOX / Writer: Sol

🇨🇩 This is BARELY making headlines, but 80+ civilians were killed in just a single month in eastern DR Congo. The UN says repeated attacks by the ISIS-affiliated ADF tore through communities in Ituri throughout August, killing dozens of civilians. 80+ people killed in a month, in a conflict most of the world hardly ever hears about... Source: @Tabzlive on TG / Writer: Lynn

🇺🇸🇪🇺 Trump’s pressure on NATO is starting to produce an awkward side effect: Europe is preparing for a future where it needs America a lot less. At least 8 NATO countries are already looking to reduce their dependence on U.S. weapons and technology, while the Pentagon is weighing troop cuts of up to 25,000 in Europe. Canada is buying more non-U.S. defense systems, Europe is developing alternatives to the Patriot, and Ursula von der Leyen just used a 70-minute speech to warn of a fracture in the international order and call for new partnerships. The irony: Trump pushed Europe to spend more on defense, and now part of that money may increasingly bypass U.S. defense companies altogether. Source: Reuters / Writer: Sol

🇬🇧 Quite the scene right next to Big Ben. London police detained a man after officers spotted what appeared to be the handle of a firearm sticking out of his bag near Parliament. The clip circulating online describes the man as a migrant, though that detail has not been independently confirmed. Writer: Lynn t.co/H9ZU36pq2E

🇾🇪🇸🇦 20 kilometers of trenches around Bab el-Mandeb means the Houthis think the next fight is coming to them... and they intend to stay. They're betting that Saudi-backed forces will try to claw back the coast and the island approaches, and that holding the Gate of Tears is worth turning the shoreline into a fortress. If the line holds, the strait stays under their shadow, insurance stays high, and a two-week offensive becomes a grinding siege. If it breaks, Mocha and Perim become a foothold instead of a trophy... Source: @EGYOSINT / Writer: Samuel

🇺🇸 The man prosecutors say ran a Ponzi scheme past Taylor Swift's husband, Travis Kelce, just got 11 years An illegal immigrant pleaded guilty after raising more than $35 million for a fund that, the government says, put only about $10 million into one company and then used new money to pay old investors. The rest went to jets, hotels, clubs, dinners, and clothes, the stock he did buy tanked and he did not tell the clients... How many athletes are getting ripped off like this? Writer: Samuel t.co/n6eu5BEOwM

🇺🇸 Hasan Piker just told Axios that America does more terrorism than al-Qaeda, “pound for pound.” He pointed to the Minab school strike in Iran and called killing schoolgirls an act of terror. Republicans have already spent MILLIONS tying him to Michigan Democrat Abdul El-Sayed, who now says he "does not care" what a California streamer thinks. Probably hard to win an election being associated with that guy... though I suppose Mamdani kinda did. Writer: Samuel t.co/AQRbd9WpyS

🇬🇧👑 Charles Spencer (Diana's brother) says that days after Diana died, the future king told him the world would forget her soon enough. In his memoir, he describes a FURIOUS call over whether William and Harry should walk in the funeral. Then, he writes, Charles hissed that they would forget about her... WTF Source: CNN / Writer: Samuel

🇦🇷🇺🇸 Messi hugged his kids after the match while absolutely drenched in sweat, and their faces said everything 😂 Writer: Sol t.co/Q6np7nyO8l