Mario Nawfal

The CFR Crypto Fund Index, which measures the mean return and net of fees of around 150 actively managed crypto funds, returned -3.4% for Q1, 2022. A random Joe hodling BTC in the same period would have outperformed those quants and mathematicians.

The idea that someone could do well by just buying the entire market used to be considered preposterous. Not anymore.

Celsius has on several occasions lost funds in instances which, with some prudence could have been avoided: $70M loss in a StakeHound Exploit $50M in the BadgerDAO front-end exploit. $500M of client deposits in Anchor Protocol

Fact: only 10%-20% of active funds beat their benchmarks over any rolling ten-year period.

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The rumor that a new bill would label ETH as a security is false. Double check everything you read. Here’s the truth – the bill would label ETH as a commodity (and thus regulated by the CFTC instead of the SEC).

There is still not a universal, generally agreed upon definition of what makes a metaverse a #metaverse.

The Lightning Network public capacity is now sitting at an all-time high of ~4,000 BTC Bullish!

The Ropsten testnet PoS merge is the final rehearsal before a big high-stakes stage play. Seven years of work, culminating this summer.

Michael Saylor’s thesis: If BTC doesn’t fall to zero it would go up to $1M. Kinda reasonable.

Interesting crypto news during this week: (a thread)

The Mayer Multiple Model suggests that crypto is still in a bearish environment. Of the many technical indicators this is one I particularly respect and observe.

Were you a foolish optimist during the bull market? Be a foolish optimist during the bear market as well. The technology shift is still here, it hasn’t gone anywhere. Market sentiments change all the time.

Edge announced Bitcoin Confidential Mastercard that does not require personally identifiable information and takes 15 seconds to create. Insane!

Fact: The entire bitcoin sell-off since April 1st has occurred during U.S. trading hours. The cumulative YTD BTC returns during U.S. trading hours YTD is -32.55% compared to European +16%.

DeFi is far more capital efficient than TradFi: - Uniswap: fully-diluted market cap today of $5.1 billion, 80 full-time employees, or $63 million per team member. - MakerDAO: market cap of US$6.8 billion. $MKR token has a market cap of $1.1 billion or $12 million per team member.

Look for the smallest viable audience. Make your work about someone, not about everyone.

When was the last time you did something for the first time?

Move fast and break things! Earlier this week, my company NFT Tech (t.co/FF8TVRs0H3) was listed on the Frankfurt Stock Exchange under the trading symbol “8LO”. Just two weeks earlier we also listed on Canada’s NEO exchange under the ticker $NFT. Did you say bear market? t.co/iNClIyiFTb

Most stress comes from inappropriately managed commitments you make or accept.

Pay attention to your enemies, for they are the first to discover your mistakes.

Investing is all about probabilities. Being 75% right vs completely right (or wrong). It is surprising how few people get this.

Looking for projects to sweep 👀 🎁 Win: 2x @trippinapes NFT 1- Tag your favorite projects & tell us why. 2- Follow @MarioNawfal + @trippinapes 3- Like, RT and Tag 3 friends 4- Call a loved one (I’m not kidding😉)

Alpha leak: If you have a Witches or Wizards hat #Moonbird, get ready for a private event during NFT NYC. Thank me afterwards.

Luna was not a ponzi. Luna was a flawed subsidized growth strategy

A problem without a solution isn’t necessarily a problem, it could simply be a situation.

“Don't sit around hoping the good ol' days will return". Wrong – Good old days do return in various forms. History rhymes.

Brands have shorter life cycles now, a couple of decades max.

Measure, review, improve, do, measure, review, improve. Repeat.

As interest rates rise and capital gets more expensive, 'growth at all costs' will no longer be rewarded the same